How the GOP Can Win in 2010

Republicans swept the races for Governor of New Jersey and Virginia, but lost both special elections for Congress (one in NY, one in California). The gubernatorial victories refute the claim that the GOP has dwindled into a narrow base of white southern evangelicals; Republican candidates won over independents by a two-to-one margin in both states, which backed Barack Obama only a year ago. New Jersey is a northern industrial state, with a very diverse population, including large numbers of Jews and other minorities.

But how can Republicans win the 2010 Congressional elections?

I contend that President Obama has made a major strategic error in his foreign policy that is ripe for exploitation by Republicans: the effort to create a Palestinian state. As noted in several previous postings, this effort is futile, because Hamas does not want a peace settlement with Israel, and Fatah is too weak to make a settlement without Hamas support. Apparently Obama, Clinton, Ross, Emanuel,and Mitchell do not know this.

Right now the dispute seems to concern expansion of Israeli settlements on the West Bank; the Palestinians insist that all settlement activity be halted, and Obama agrees. (Actually, all American administrations since Israel acquired the West Bank in 1967 have been opposed to the settlements, but this President has pressured Israel more vehemently than any since George H W Bush in 1991.) Moreover, Obama has visited Egypt since becoming President, but not Israel. He has moved the US from a staunchly pro-Israel position toward a more neutral stance vis-a-vis the Palestinians. (1)

Unlike many of Obama's policies in domestic affairs (such as health-care reform, economic stimulus, reduction of pollution, etc.), the shift in Middle East policy has a very small political constituency: Muslim-Americans, J Street, leftists and peace-activists. Jews and pro-Israel Christians vastly outnumber them. Democratic candidates for the House and Senate should be asked at every opportunity if they support President Obama's efforts to halt settlement activity and create a Palestinian state!

Republican candidates can appeal to pro-Zionist voters by calling for a Congressional resolution that defends the rights of Israeli settlers to build in the West Bank. Congress is always more friendly to Israel than is the Executive Branch (especially the State Department), but rarely breaks with Administration policy. Would AIPAC support such a resolution?

The obvious choice to lead this effort would be Rep. Eric Cantor of Virginia, the only Jewish Republican in all of Congress. (2) Most of the issues touted by Republican candidates, such as opposition to abortion and the right to own guns, leave Jewish voters cold, but unqualified support for Israel will get to some of them. The downside of emphasizing this issue is very minor, since most anti-Israel activists are so far left that they would not vote Republican anyway.
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(1) However, the US is aligned with Israel against Iran. So far, Obama has been no more effective that George W Bush was in opposing Iran's nuclear program.

(2) Arlen Spector of Pennsylvania was the last Jewish Republican in the Senate before he switched parties. There have been many others, such as Norman Coleman (of Minnesota, who lost to another Jew: Al Franken), Warren Rudman (New Hampshire) and Chic Hecht (Nevada).

When Conventions Mattered

Do you remember the last time that a national political convention had real drama and impact? Nowadays the networks don't even bother covering most convention events; the main speeches are scheduled for prime-time live broadcast and the rest is largely ignored. As if to deprive the conventions of even the slightest suspense, the nominees for vice president are nowadays announced before the conventions open, following the example set by Ronald Reagan in 1976. (1)

But older readers will recall televised conventions that offered suspense, drama, conflict and real surprises. Here are some unforgettable moments that Americans saw in their living rooms:

1952: Republicans: A floor fight over seating the Georgia delegation was won by Eisenhower forces, a victory that clinched the nomination for Ike. Who can forget the moment when Illinois Senator Everett Dirksen pointed his finger at former NY Governor Tom Dewey (the GOP nominee for president in 1944 and 1948) and bellowed " We followed you before, and you lead us down the path to defeat!"

1952: Democrats: Tennessee Senator Estes Kefauver led on the first ballot, but did not secure a majority. He picked up only a few votes on the second ballot; a sure sign (that I did not recognize at the time) that his candidacy was doomed. Meanwhile President Harry Truman, who had lost the New Hampshire primary to Kefauver, flew in from Washington and was allowed to address the convention before the third ballot. He strongly endorsed Governor Adlai Stevenson of Illinois, and soon all the other candidates (Harriman, Kerr, Russell) except Kefauver withdrew in favor of Stevenson.
Stevenson swamped Kefauver on the third ballot, then chose arch-segregationist Senator John Sparkman of Alabama as his running-mate, perhaps to forestall another southern walk-out, like that which had occurred in 1948. The ticket carried the Deep South, West Virginia and no other states.

1956: Democrats: Stevenson was nominated again, this time easily. He declined to name a candidate for vice president, leaving the choice to the convention. Estes Kefauver edged-out Massachusetts Senator John F Kennedy in a nail-biting cliff-hanger roll-call vote. For Kefauver, the epitome of the Fifties Democrat, it was to be the "Last Hurrah" on the national stage. For Kennedy, it was the first national exposure of the handsome young man who would lead the party into the Sixties.

1964: Republicans: NY Governor Nelson Rockefeller was nearly drowned-out by boos when he attempted to address the convention. "This is still a free country!" Rocky interjected. "Some of you may not like it that way, but it still is!" Later reporter Dan Rather of CBS was briefly taken into custody by security guards while on camera.
Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater accepted the nomination with the dictum: "Extremism in defense of liberty is no vice!"

1968: Democrats: President Lyndon Johnson had declined to seek re-election, and Senator Robert F Kennedy had been murdered; the names placed in nomination were Vice President Hubert Humphrey and Minnesota Senator Eugene McCarthy. Meanwhile anti-war demonstrators clashed with Chicago police on Michigan Avenue, as millions watched on live TV.
Senator Abraham Ribicoff of Connecticut rose to nominate Senator George McGovern of South Dakota. To the raucous and fractious convention he declared, " When George McGovern is President of the United States, we won't have Gestapo tactics in the streets of Chicago!" Livid with rage, Mayor Richard J Daley shouted epithets (2) at Ribicoff, as other delegates cheered and booed.

1972: Democrats: McGovern won the nomination this time, and offered the vice presidency to Abe Ribicoff, perhaps out of gratitude for the 1968 oration in his behalf. When Ribicoff declined the honor, McGovern picked Missouri Senator Tom Eagleton. Several other candidates were nominated from the floor of the convention, including Alaska Senator Mike Gravel, who nominated himself. (3) By time the balloting was over, and the nominee was called upon to give his acceptance speech, it was after midnight in most of the country.
Eagleton was subsequently replaced by Sargent Shriver, and the ticket carried only Massachusetts and the DC, the worst showing of any Democratic ticket up to that time.

1976: Democrats: Nominee Jimmy Carter referred to former Vice President "Hubert Horatio Hornblower", possibly a Freudian slip alluding to the man's over-the-top style of oratory.

1984: Democrats: Nominee Walter Mondale promised to raise taxes if elected. He wasn't.

1988: Republicans: Nominee George Bush dared Democrats in Congress to "Read my lips---No new taxes!" Videotape of this line was used effectively by Bill Clinton four years later, after Bush had signed into law the biggest tax increase in US history.

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(1) Reagan selected Pennsylvania Senator Richard Schweiker for vice-president, and urged that the convention rules be changed to require all presidential candidates to disclose their VP choices in advance. President Gerald Ford beat-back Reagan's challenge, and slated Senator Bob Dole as his running-mate.
In 1980, Reagan waited until he had been nominated to pick George Bush as his running-mate.

(2) Daley later said that he called Ribicoff a "faker". Some observers thought he used a stronger insult. This question is still unsettled, and always will be.

(3) Thirty-six years later, in 2008, Gravel was again a candidate for the Democratic nomination, this time for president. Perhaps he derives some satisfaction from the nomination of fellow Alaskan Sarah Palin for vice president, even if it is by the Republican party.

McCain Surge

After a lousy tie for third-place (with 13%) in the Iowa Republican caucus, Senator John McCain surged to a win (with 37%) in New Hampshire yesterday, January 8.

This confirms my judgment that McCain is not only the best-qualified Republican to be President, but also the most electable.

The Soldier: John McCain, a Navy pilot, was shot down over North Vietnam in 1967 and spent the rest of the War as a POW in Hanoi. His captors offered to release him before other US prisoners because his father was an admiral, but he refused repatriation until all were released. (Now try to imagine any other current presidential candidate enduring any discomfort out of concern for other people!)

The Senator: After serving in the House, McCain was elected to the Senate to succeed Barry Goldwater, who also ran for President. Although he has had a conservative voting record overall, McCain is known as a "maverick" for his co-sponsorship of the McCain-Feingold Campaign Reform Act, which was opposed by the Senate Republican leadership. He sought the Republican nomination for President in 2000,and won the New Hampshire primary that year over George W Bush. Bush beat him in South Carolina, and the rest is history.

The Candidate: Considering that the US in engaged in a two-front War on Terror, a Commander-in-Chief with substantial military experience would be real plus: only McCain has it. When President Bush, Attorney General Mukasey, and other presidential candidates were unsure about whether "waterboarding" (1) was torture or not, McCain said it was torture, period. As a former POW, he noted, he knew something about torture.
In an era of increasingly acrimonious partisanship, McCain has proved that he can work effectively with Democrats, as he did in crafting the Campaign Reform Act. His endorsement by Senator Joe Lieberman, the Democratic nominee for Vice President in 2000 , also confirms his ability to draw support from Democrats as well as independents.
New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is seriously considering running for President as an independent. But if McCain is the Republican nominee, Bloomberg's appeal to independent voters will be drastically reduced. If it appears that the Arizona senator will be nominated, I believe that Bloomberg will not run at all.

The Alternatives: Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas Governor who won in Iowa, is the favorite of the Christian right,but leaves other voters rather cold. He polled only 11 % in New Hampshire, despite about a billion dollars worth of hype in the week before the primary. If nominated, he will carry the South, some of the West, and lose everywhere else. Good!
Mitt Romney, who managed to finish second in both states, is an attractive candidate in many ways, but is widely perceived as insincere. His beliefs on social issues have an uncanny way of matching those of the voters he is trying to sway. His failure to win in a state bordering Massachusetts is a sign that his effort is faltering.
Rudy Giuliani, who polled a miserable 9% in New Hampshire, is pinning his hopes on Florida (Jan. 29) and New York (Feb. 5, "Super Tuesday"). My guess is that he will lose Florida, and his expected win in his home state will be dwarfed by losses in all the other Super Tuesday primaries. The former New York Mayor has a well-deserved reputation for being hot-tempered, abusive, and vindictive. His messy personal life is more suitable for an actor or rock-star than standard-bearer of a party devoted to "family values."
Fred Thompson, who scored about one percent in New Hampshire, seems to have lost his way in this campaign, perhaps as a result of the script-writers' strike.
Definitely not ready for prime time.
Ron Paul, who virtually tied Giuliani in New Hampshire (8%), made the race interesting by actually saying what he believed in the candidate debates. He has former Senator Robert Taft's (2) isolationist ideology, but lacks his familiar name or statewide political base. Taft never got the presidential nomination, and neither will Paul. So the next President will not abolish the Federal Reserve System, foreign aid, the IRS or the rest of the federal government.
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(1) Pouring water over a prisoner's mouth and nose to make him reveal military information.

(2) Ohio Senator Robert Taft, son of President William Howard Taft, sought the Republican nomination in 1940, 1948, and 1952. He died in 1954.

A New Tax, Anyone?

"Read my lips: No new taxes!"
Vice President George Bush, 1988

Unlike the senior Bush, ex-Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas wants a new national sales tax, called the "Fair Tax", to replace the federal income and Social Security Tax. Since Huckabee has become a serious candidate for the Republican presidential nomination (1), his plan deserves consideration. The idea has also been endorsed by fellow GOP candidates Fred Thompson and John McCain, and Democrat Mike Gravel.

Q. How would the Fair Tax work?
All new goods and all services would be taxed at 23% of their total price, including tax. For example, if an item sells for $100 now, the tax would be $30 = .23($100+30). This would be equivalent to a 30% tax based on the pre-tax price.
However, every family would receive a "prebate" from the Government equal to 23% of the poverty-level income for a family of that size. This would be paid every month. Considering the prebate, the poor would pay no tax at all.

Q. Would this tax bring in enough to pay for the federal budget plus Social Security and Medicare?
Since the federal government spends about 22% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), you might think so. However, there would be a tremendous incentive to buy new goods in Canada, Mexico and other countries to legally avoid the tax. In addition, "black markets" would sprout all over America in which the tax would not be charged. My guess is that actual collected taxes would be far below present revenues.

Q. How would the change in taxes affect the economy?
The good news is that foreign corporations would flock to set up headquarters in the US, since there would be no income tax here. Without an income tax, American corporations could afford to pay bigger dividends to investors.
The bad news is that retail businesses located near the Canadian border (such as in Detroit, St Paul, Seattle, or Buffalo) or the Mexican border (such as in southern California, southern Texas, or Arizona) would lose so much trade that many would close.
For example,the tax on a new $30,000 car would be about $9,000, so not many new cars would be sold in the US. But if someone would buy a new car in Toronto and drive it here, it could be sold here as a used car, tax-free!
Anything that could be purchased through mail-order from foreign firms would be bought that way, thus cutting out American-based dealers. Also, the home-building industry would be devastated since the tax would only be charged on new homes, not re-sold homes.

Q. Could we then eliminate the IRS and save millions?
The cost of enforcing the sales tax and processing the "prebate" checks every month would be big too, maybe as big as the cost of the IRS now.

Q. Who would benefit the most from the switch to a sales tax?
The rich. According to the US Department of Labor, families with incomes of at least $150,000 per year spend only about half their post-tax income on living expenses and invest the rest. Under the new plan, their tax rate would drop to no more than 11.5% of income, instead of about 40% today.

Q. Who would lose the most through the switch?
Most families with an income of $70,000 or less would pay more, although the very poor would still pay nothing (after the "prebate.")
Retired people, who now pay little or no income tax (2) and no Social Security Tax, would pay much more than they do now. The net effect of the change would be to shift the burden of taxation from the affluent to the working class and lower-middle class.
If that does not appeal to you, you are not thinking like a Republican!

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(1) Huckabee started soaring in the polls after the appearance of a Huckabee campaign song (to the tune of 1958 summer hit "Hushabye") in the September 9 Glazerbeam.
As Josef Stalin once said, "There are no coincidences!"

(2) Social Security benefits are not taxed unless the recipient has other household income of at least $30,000. There is no Social Security Tax on these benefits, pensions or investment income.

Music to Republican Ears

As promised, here are some campaign songs for candidates for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination, so sing along!

1. Tune of "The Illini Fight Song"

We're loyal to you, John McCain!
We're true navy blue, John McCain!
We all understand
That when you take a stand
You're the best in the land, John McCain!

2. Tune of "Hushabye" by the Elegants (1)

Huckabee, Huckabee
He's the candidate for me!
He can lead the GOP
Down the path to victory!
Oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh----
Huck, Huck, Huckabee!

Huckabee is my man,
If he can't win,
Then no one can,
Against the Left he will fight
'Cause in your heart, you knows he's Right!

3. Tune of "Ballad of the Green Berets"

A Senator from Tennessee
Star of movies and TV,
A Law & Order man is he
When he plays one on TV!

So make Fred Thompson President!
Follow Reagan's precedent!
And when he leaves the White House scene
He will return to the silver screen!

4. Tune of "Rudolph, the Red-Nose Reindeer"

Rudolph, New York's ex-mayor,
Wants to be your candidate,
And if you didn't know him,
You might even think he's great.

But Rudolph, New York's ex-mayor
Had a very messed-up life,
And if you don't believe it,
Go and ask his second wife!

5. Tune of "My Bonny Lies Over the Ocean"

I'm voting for Governor Romney
And hope that you're also for Mitt,
But if you like someone else better,
Then I think that you're full of sh-
allow thinking!
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(1) You don't know it? "Hushabye" was only among the top ten tunes in America in the Summer of '58 . Where in blazes have you been?

Republican Repartee

Ten middle-aged white men seeking the 2008 Republican nomination for President fielded questions at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California, on the evening of May 3. The contenders were Ex-Mayor Rudolph Giuliani (NY), Senators John McCain (AZ) and Sam Brownback (KS), Ex-Governors Tommy Thompson (WI), Mitt Romney (MA), Jim Gilmore (VA) and Mike Huckabee (AR), and Representatives Tom Tancredo (CO). Ron Paul (TX), and Duncan Hunter (CA).

Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, Ex-Senator Fred Thompson (TN), and Senator Chuck Hagel (NE) are also considering entering the GOP Presidential race.

The moderator, Chris Matthews of "Hardball", asked some remarkably asinine questions, including:
"Would you hire Karl Rove?" ("Yes, to sweep my basement")
"Would you pardon Scooter Libby?" ("Sure, in the first paragraph of my resignation letter.")
"Would you like to see Bill Clinton live in the White House again?"
("Yes, that is why I pray Hillary beats me in November!")

Despite the usual equivocations and inanities, there were some real differences expressed:

I. Middle East
Ron Paul, who had voted against the Iraq War, demanded a return to a humble, non-interventionist foreign policy. He also blamed the War for erosion of some of our constitutional rights over the past several years.
On the other extreme, McCain insisted that we must stay and fight in Iraq. Although he admitted that the War had been mismanaged so far, he was optimistic about ultimate victory. McCain angrily denounced Congressional Democrats for passing a timetable for withdrawal.
Thompson and Brownback called for division of Iraq into three or more autonomous regions, a plan previously endorsed by Democratic Senator Joe Biden (DE). All other candidates were supportive of the War, but some hoped for an honorable withdrawal sometime soon.
Jim Gilmore advocated a stronger US effort to settle the Israel-Palestinian dispute.
McCain also denounced Iran as a major threat, and insisted that Iran be prevented from developing nuclear weapons and giving them to terrorists. Tancredo would help Israel attack Iran, if Israel asked for US assistance.

II. Religious Issues
Giuliani was the only candidate to defend the right of a pregnant woman to choose abortion at any stage of gestation, and was joined only by McCain in supporting federal funding for embryonic stem-cell research.
Romney admitted he was pro-choice when he ran for Governor of Massachusetts, but switched to pro-life two years ago. Romney, a Mormon, also decried the decline in traditional family values, noting that about a third of American babies are born to unwed mothers.
All other candidates opposed both abortion and embryonic stem-cell use.
Thompson was asked if an employer should be able to fire a worker for being "gay" (homosexual). He said "yes", even though such discrimination would violate Wisconsin law.
Huckabee and Brownback admitted that their religious beliefs would affect their policies as President.

III. Immigration
Tancredo and Hunter demanded an end to illegal immigration, supported the fence along the Mexican border, and opposed any form of amnesty for illegal aliens. Only McCain supported amnesty, as part of an immigration-reform bill. Giuliani supported a "tamper-proof" national ID card for legal aliens, but not for citizens.

IV. Taxes and Spending
All of the candidates want to cut taxes, especially the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT), but only Paul and Huckabee would eliminate the IRS altogether. Giuliani would eliminate the "death" (inheritance) tax, and Romney would abolish taxes on investment income for the middle class. McCain suggested cutting military cost-overruns, and Thompson and Giuliani boasted that they had cut welfare costs.

The "Horse Race"

Now, how does the debate affect the chances of the candidates?

Mitt Romney, like John F Kennedy in 1960, is a tall, handsome, rich and articulate second-generation politician from Massachusetts. Like Kennedy, he belongs to a minority religion. The troubles are than Mormons are nowhere near as numerous as Catholics, and they are considered heretics by many other Christians (1). Romney's switch on abortion is also suspected of being driven by politics, and may even vanish after Romney gets the Republican nomination. Still, his performance at the forum showed that he is probably the most electable Republican candidate.

John McCain, widely admired for his courage, is weighed down by his support of the Iraq War. He may be right that the War is winnable, but winning would require a vast increase in American troops, more casualties, and more cost. A draft might be even be necessary to field an army big enough to control Iraq. The American people do not consider Iraq worth the sacrifices that would be necessary to win, and so McCain will no doubt lose his last real chance to become President.

Rudolph Giuliani tried to link himself to the late President Reagan by invoking his name many times. But he lacks Reagan's charisma, and his pro-choice stance (coupled with his messy personal history) will make him unacceptable to the GOP's fundamentalist/evangelical base. I was just waiting for someone to say , "Rudy, you're no Ronald Reagan!" His lead in the polls will vanish when religious conservatives unite behind a single candidate.

Ron Paul's isolationism is shared by millions of Americans, but none of them are Republicans, so his cause is doomed. The opposition to illegal immigration touted by Tancredo and Hunter are actually very popular with Republicans, but very few people will vote for President on that basis. All three congressmen are virtually unknown, and none of them have the money to overcome that.

The rest of the candidates (Thompson, Huckabee, Gilmore, and Brownback) all showed themselves to be competent and serious contenders for the support of the white, conservative, mainstream-Christian base of the Republican Party. None are as well-known as Giuliani and McCain, and none are as rich or impressive as Romney. Morevoer, none of them are from a big state. There is no reason to believe than any one of these four candidates can emerge from the second-tier .

My guess is that two or three of the prospective candidates (Fred Thompson, Gingrich, Hagel) will enter the race by Fall. Of these, Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich are well-known nationally, and will vault to the top tier of contenders quickly.

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(1) Mormons believe that Joseph Smith (1805-1844) received a prophecy as great as that of the entire Bible. He taught that those who embraced his new faith would become "gods".