The Brink of Collapse
"In Thursday's (March 16) meeting of the Fatah Central Commitee, member Tayed Abdel Rahim ...demanded that Abbas resign and disolve the Palestinian Authority (PA)." (1)
Considering the enormous problems facing him, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas (also known as Abu Mazen) may be tempted to take this advice and "throw in the towel."
Power Struggle Looms
The Islamic fanatic party Hamas, which won a majority in the January 25 Parliamentary election, has submitted a slate of ministers for a new government for Abbas' approval. Most of the proposed officials are Hamas hard-liners. The key issue is control of the Palestine Police and other security services, which now report to Abbas. When a new government takes office, will these services, staffed by Fatah-men, come under the power of Hamas? Will the Hamas military wing be folded into the security services?
Although Abbas is a conciliator by nature, it is not clear that his armed followers will accept Hamas leadership. Things could become ugly fast.
If Abbas loses control of these forces, he will be reduced to a ceremonial head-of-state like Queen Elizabeth II.
Bankruptcy
Despite massive aid from the US and Europe plus import taxes collected by Israel, the PA has run a deficit every month. Since the Hamas victory, Israel has withheld the tax money and the US and European Union have threatened to cut off aid unless Hamas changes its policies. Since the PA must have a FICO Score (2) of about zero, the Authority will not be able to borrow from world financial markets; before long, Abbas will not be able meet the payroll for his security services.
Will unpaid Palestinian soldiers turn their guns in at their bases and go home to look for jobs that do not exist? Or will they turn to robbery, kidnapping and extortion to survive? My guess is that most will choose the latter option, which will bring them into conflict with each other and armed civilians. The PA territory, notorious for lawlessness in the best of times, will spiral down into chaos if the security services turn into armed gangs.
Will Iran fund the Palestinian Authority?
Iran, awash with oil money, and under fanatic Muslim control, will be pleased to fund a Hamas-dominated PA. Acceptance of Iranian money will also strengthen the hands of Hamas at the expense of Abbas and his Fatah supporters, since the latter cannot match Hamas in Islamic zeal.
Abbas may be able to avert the financial disaster facing the PA by turning to Iran, but the price that Iran will demand for its aid could be devastating: a free hand for Hezbollah (3) to operate in the Palestinian territory. Through Hezbollah, Iran can wage a proxy war against Israel with impunity. Although both Israelis and Palestinians would suffer, President Ahmadinejad could cheer his Muslim brethren from Tehran. It is even possible that Iran would seek military bases in the PA territory, but Israel would not permit them to be established.
Averting Disaster
None of these Doomsday scenarios are inevitable. It is not too late for Hamas to realize that prosperity is possible only through peace and stability. This means abandoning the jihadist rhetoric about destroying Israel (which they can't do anyway, thank G-d!) and terrorism. Instead, Palestinians must seek peaceful resolution of disputes, both among themselves and between Arabs and Israelis.
No one will invest in a war-zone, so peace and security must be firmly established before efforts to build the economy can be successful. With a durable peace, it may be possible to lure European manufacturing firms to establish labor-intensive industries in the PA territory that will provide jobs.
If only more Palestinians would read the Glazerbeam!
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(1) Quoted in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, March 19, 2006, page 4A.
(2) The score used by American lenders to determine the credit-worthiness of loan applicants. Any score over 700 is considered satisfactory.
(3) Hezbollah ("The Party of Allah") is a terrorist group and political party in Lebanon supported and armed by Iran. They are camped just north of the Israel-Lebanon border, and often fire rockets into Israel. Hezbollah is also widely blamed for destroying the Jewish Center of Buenos Aires, Argentina, in 1983.
Considering the enormous problems facing him, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas (also known as Abu Mazen) may be tempted to take this advice and "throw in the towel."
Power Struggle Looms
The Islamic fanatic party Hamas, which won a majority in the January 25 Parliamentary election, has submitted a slate of ministers for a new government for Abbas' approval. Most of the proposed officials are Hamas hard-liners. The key issue is control of the Palestine Police and other security services, which now report to Abbas. When a new government takes office, will these services, staffed by Fatah-men, come under the power of Hamas? Will the Hamas military wing be folded into the security services?
Although Abbas is a conciliator by nature, it is not clear that his armed followers will accept Hamas leadership. Things could become ugly fast.
If Abbas loses control of these forces, he will be reduced to a ceremonial head-of-state like Queen Elizabeth II.
Bankruptcy
Despite massive aid from the US and Europe plus import taxes collected by Israel, the PA has run a deficit every month. Since the Hamas victory, Israel has withheld the tax money and the US and European Union have threatened to cut off aid unless Hamas changes its policies. Since the PA must have a FICO Score (2) of about zero, the Authority will not be able to borrow from world financial markets; before long, Abbas will not be able meet the payroll for his security services.
Will unpaid Palestinian soldiers turn their guns in at their bases and go home to look for jobs that do not exist? Or will they turn to robbery, kidnapping and extortion to survive? My guess is that most will choose the latter option, which will bring them into conflict with each other and armed civilians. The PA territory, notorious for lawlessness in the best of times, will spiral down into chaos if the security services turn into armed gangs.
Will Iran fund the Palestinian Authority?
Iran, awash with oil money, and under fanatic Muslim control, will be pleased to fund a Hamas-dominated PA. Acceptance of Iranian money will also strengthen the hands of Hamas at the expense of Abbas and his Fatah supporters, since the latter cannot match Hamas in Islamic zeal.
Abbas may be able to avert the financial disaster facing the PA by turning to Iran, but the price that Iran will demand for its aid could be devastating: a free hand for Hezbollah (3) to operate in the Palestinian territory. Through Hezbollah, Iran can wage a proxy war against Israel with impunity. Although both Israelis and Palestinians would suffer, President Ahmadinejad could cheer his Muslim brethren from Tehran. It is even possible that Iran would seek military bases in the PA territory, but Israel would not permit them to be established.
Averting Disaster
None of these Doomsday scenarios are inevitable. It is not too late for Hamas to realize that prosperity is possible only through peace and stability. This means abandoning the jihadist rhetoric about destroying Israel (which they can't do anyway, thank G-d!) and terrorism. Instead, Palestinians must seek peaceful resolution of disputes, both among themselves and between Arabs and Israelis.
No one will invest in a war-zone, so peace and security must be firmly established before efforts to build the economy can be successful. With a durable peace, it may be possible to lure European manufacturing firms to establish labor-intensive industries in the PA territory that will provide jobs.
If only more Palestinians would read the Glazerbeam!
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
(1) Quoted in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, March 19, 2006, page 4A.
(2) The score used by American lenders to determine the credit-worthiness of loan applicants. Any score over 700 is considered satisfactory.
(3) Hezbollah ("The Party of Allah") is a terrorist group and political party in Lebanon supported and armed by Iran. They are camped just north of the Israel-Lebanon border, and often fire rockets into Israel. Hezbollah is also widely blamed for destroying the Jewish Center of Buenos Aires, Argentina, in 1983.
posted by Gerald S Glazer at 10:09 AM
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