McCain Surge
After a lousy tie for third-place (with 13%) in the Iowa Republican caucus, Senator John McCain surged to a win (with 37%) in New Hampshire yesterday, January 8.
This confirms my judgment that McCain is not only the best-qualified Republican to be President, but also the most electable.
The Soldier: John McCain, a Navy pilot, was shot down over North Vietnam in 1967 and spent the rest of the War as a POW in Hanoi. His captors offered to release him before other US prisoners because his father was an admiral, but he refused repatriation until all were released. (Now try to imagine any other current presidential candidate enduring any discomfort out of concern for other people!)
The Senator: After serving in the House, McCain was elected to the Senate to succeed Barry Goldwater, who also ran for President. Although he has had a conservative voting record overall, McCain is known as a "maverick" for his co-sponsorship of the McCain-Feingold Campaign Reform Act, which was opposed by the Senate Republican leadership. He sought the Republican nomination for President in 2000,and won the New Hampshire primary that year over George W Bush. Bush beat him in South Carolina, and the rest is history.
The Candidate: Considering that the US in engaged in a two-front War on Terror, a Commander-in-Chief with substantial military experience would be real plus: only McCain has it. When President Bush, Attorney General Mukasey, and other presidential candidates were unsure about whether "waterboarding" (1) was torture or not, McCain said it was torture, period. As a former POW, he noted, he knew something about torture.
In an era of increasingly acrimonious partisanship, McCain has proved that he can work effectively with Democrats, as he did in crafting the Campaign Reform Act. His endorsement by Senator Joe Lieberman, the Democratic nominee for Vice President in 2000 , also confirms his ability to draw support from Democrats as well as independents.
New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is seriously considering running for President as an independent. But if McCain is the Republican nominee, Bloomberg's appeal to independent voters will be drastically reduced. If it appears that the Arizona senator will be nominated, I believe that Bloomberg will not run at all.
The Alternatives: Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas Governor who won in Iowa, is the favorite of the Christian right,but leaves other voters rather cold. He polled only 11 % in New Hampshire, despite about a billion dollars worth of hype in the week before the primary. If nominated, he will carry the South, some of the West, and lose everywhere else. Good!
Mitt Romney, who managed to finish second in both states, is an attractive candidate in many ways, but is widely perceived as insincere. His beliefs on social issues have an uncanny way of matching those of the voters he is trying to sway. His failure to win in a state bordering Massachusetts is a sign that his effort is faltering.
Rudy Giuliani, who polled a miserable 9% in New Hampshire, is pinning his hopes on Florida (Jan. 29) and New York (Feb. 5, "Super Tuesday"). My guess is that he will lose Florida, and his expected win in his home state will be dwarfed by losses in all the other Super Tuesday primaries. The former New York Mayor has a well-deserved reputation for being hot-tempered, abusive, and vindictive. His messy personal life is more suitable for an actor or rock-star than standard-bearer of a party devoted to "family values."
Fred Thompson, who scored about one percent in New Hampshire, seems to have lost his way in this campaign, perhaps as a result of the script-writers' strike.
Definitely not ready for prime time.
Ron Paul, who virtually tied Giuliani in New Hampshire (8%), made the race interesting by actually saying what he believed in the candidate debates. He has former Senator Robert Taft's (2) isolationist ideology, but lacks his familiar name or statewide political base. Taft never got the presidential nomination, and neither will Paul. So the next President will not abolish the Federal Reserve System, foreign aid, the IRS or the rest of the federal government.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(1) Pouring water over a prisoner's mouth and nose to make him reveal military information.
(2) Ohio Senator Robert Taft, son of President William Howard Taft, sought the Republican nomination in 1940, 1948, and 1952. He died in 1954.
This confirms my judgment that McCain is not only the best-qualified Republican to be President, but also the most electable.
The Soldier: John McCain, a Navy pilot, was shot down over North Vietnam in 1967 and spent the rest of the War as a POW in Hanoi. His captors offered to release him before other US prisoners because his father was an admiral, but he refused repatriation until all were released. (Now try to imagine any other current presidential candidate enduring any discomfort out of concern for other people!)
The Senator: After serving in the House, McCain was elected to the Senate to succeed Barry Goldwater, who also ran for President. Although he has had a conservative voting record overall, McCain is known as a "maverick" for his co-sponsorship of the McCain-Feingold Campaign Reform Act, which was opposed by the Senate Republican leadership. He sought the Republican nomination for President in 2000,and won the New Hampshire primary that year over George W Bush. Bush beat him in South Carolina, and the rest is history.
The Candidate: Considering that the US in engaged in a two-front War on Terror, a Commander-in-Chief with substantial military experience would be real plus: only McCain has it. When President Bush, Attorney General Mukasey, and other presidential candidates were unsure about whether "waterboarding" (1) was torture or not, McCain said it was torture, period. As a former POW, he noted, he knew something about torture.
In an era of increasingly acrimonious partisanship, McCain has proved that he can work effectively with Democrats, as he did in crafting the Campaign Reform Act. His endorsement by Senator Joe Lieberman, the Democratic nominee for Vice President in 2000 , also confirms his ability to draw support from Democrats as well as independents.
New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is seriously considering running for President as an independent. But if McCain is the Republican nominee, Bloomberg's appeal to independent voters will be drastically reduced. If it appears that the Arizona senator will be nominated, I believe that Bloomberg will not run at all.
The Alternatives: Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas Governor who won in Iowa, is the favorite of the Christian right,but leaves other voters rather cold. He polled only 11 % in New Hampshire, despite about a billion dollars worth of hype in the week before the primary. If nominated, he will carry the South, some of the West, and lose everywhere else. Good!
Mitt Romney, who managed to finish second in both states, is an attractive candidate in many ways, but is widely perceived as insincere. His beliefs on social issues have an uncanny way of matching those of the voters he is trying to sway. His failure to win in a state bordering Massachusetts is a sign that his effort is faltering.
Rudy Giuliani, who polled a miserable 9% in New Hampshire, is pinning his hopes on Florida (Jan. 29) and New York (Feb. 5, "Super Tuesday"). My guess is that he will lose Florida, and his expected win in his home state will be dwarfed by losses in all the other Super Tuesday primaries. The former New York Mayor has a well-deserved reputation for being hot-tempered, abusive, and vindictive. His messy personal life is more suitable for an actor or rock-star than standard-bearer of a party devoted to "family values."
Fred Thompson, who scored about one percent in New Hampshire, seems to have lost his way in this campaign, perhaps as a result of the script-writers' strike.
Definitely not ready for prime time.
Ron Paul, who virtually tied Giuliani in New Hampshire (8%), made the race interesting by actually saying what he believed in the candidate debates. He has former Senator Robert Taft's (2) isolationist ideology, but lacks his familiar name or statewide political base. Taft never got the presidential nomination, and neither will Paul. So the next President will not abolish the Federal Reserve System, foreign aid, the IRS or the rest of the federal government.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(1) Pouring water over a prisoner's mouth and nose to make him reveal military information.
(2) Ohio Senator Robert Taft, son of President William Howard Taft, sought the Republican nomination in 1940, 1948, and 1952. He died in 1954.
Labels: McCain, New Hampshire, Republican
posted by Gerald S Glazer at 8:57 AM
1 Comments:
Excellent analysis and summary, but a few negatives of McCain were ignored.
1. McCain's immigration policy is not attractive to conservatives.
2. The McCain-Feingold laws have been a failure and are particularly negative for conservatives.
3. McCain I think is the oldest candidate ever or at least one of the oldest. His age is a negative for liberals and conservatives.
The problem is that all of the Republicans have serious negatives for the base of their party.
Theoretically Thompson has all of the right policies, but he comes off as such a do-nothing lazy guy, whch is why he was more popular before he decided to run.
Romney also has all of the right policies but he is perceived as a flip flopper.
The problem for the Republicans is if they nominate someone who satisfies the base, they will lose the election; but it is highly unlikely that they would ever nomiate someone who opposed their core beliefs as Guiliani is perceived to do.
Anyway when I look at all of the issues it seem to me that the most appropriate Republican candidate based on issues is Romney. He not only has the issues he has actual executive experience which McCain does not have, he is young and he is good looking which never hurts.
However of course the most appropriate does not always win so this is not a prediction. I think the Republican nominee is much harder to predict than the Democratic nominee (Hillary).
Post a Comment
<< Home