Tuesday, January 06, 2009

Gaza Postwar

"...There is nothing 'right' about punishing a million and a half already-suffering Gazans for the actions of the extremists among them."
J Street Statement

"A majority of Gaza residents believe in the (Hamas) path."
Tom Segev, Ha'aretz , Jan. 5, 2009

If Mr Segev is right, and the results of the 2005 Palestinian election support his contention, the Hamas movement is the true voice of the people of Gaza. Therefore those who are shooting rockets into Israel at the behest of Hamas are not extremists among Palestinians, but in fact are implementing the will of the people. I wish that Segev could take a walk down J Street and point this out to his fellow Jews.

No one doubts that Israel will prevail over Hamas in the battle for Gaza, probably within the next two weeks. What is not clear is what Israeli forces will leave behind after the battle.

President George W Bush, an acolyte of Democratic President Woodrow Wilson, has successfully advocated self-determination and democracy for the Arabs, both Iraqi and Palestinian. The trouble is that in 2005 the vast majority of Gazans (plus substantial numbers in the West Bank) freely chose the party, Hamas, that openly demands war with Israel. Given another chance to vote, I am confident that the Gazans would pick Hamas again. On this, I accept Tom Segev's view over that of J Street.

I suspect that many Israeli leaders are hoping to re-establish Fatah control over Gaza after this war, and that key PA leaders are also seeking the same outcome. The trouble is that Fatah can no more control Gaza in 2009 than in could in 2007, especially if it took an Israeli invasion (abetted by massive bombing) to bring Fatah back to power there.

What is left is a painful choice between endless military occupation (and endless intifada violence against Israeli soldiers) and a resumption of Hamas rule accompanied by rocket-fire against all of southern Israel. Even the imposition of European, Arab or other foreign forces in Gaza is not a viable alternative, since Hamas will fight them too, and will probably wear down the patience of any country that might send them. Since Hamas is a danger only to Israel, only Israel will have the persistence to stay.

Israel will be under enormous pressure from the UN and major world powers to withdraw from Gaza, but I hope that the Jewish state can withstand this pressure. Hamas must not only be disarmed now, but must stay disarmed if Israel is to live in peace.

If any readers have a better alternative than indefinite occupation, please present it as a note to this posting.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Labels: ,