Wednesday, March 07, 2007

Obama: Why the Hype?

Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, who recently declared his candidacy for the 2008 Democratic nomination for President, is running a solid second in most polls, just behind Senator Hillary Clinton of New York. The media hype has been constant since his speech at the 2004 Democratic National Convention. Why?

Mr Obama has just completed two years in the Senate, and so far has done nothing to earn this attention. He is neither associated with any major legislation nor with taking any especially courageous position. He has never held a position of executive authority, such as governor or even mayor.

Among his rivals for the nomination are Senators Joe Biden and Chris Dodd and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, who has previously served as Secretary of Energy and ambassador. These men have more substantial resumes, but are not getting the "rock star" treatment that Clinton and Obama are getting in the media. (OK, some of the other candidates such as Rep. Dennis Kucinich and ex-Senators John Edwards and Mike Gravel deserve even less coverage than Obama, who at least represents a large state in the Senate.)

My theory is that Barack Obama's partial African ancestry goes a long way toward explaining his spectacular rise in the media and the polls in this age of " identity politics." The fact that his father was from Kenya and his mother was white makes him bi-racial, but the media usually just labels him "black" or African-American. Obama is only the third US Senator in over a hundred years to have any African ancestry, and this characteristic gives his candidacy a special cachet (1).

Several black candidates have sought the presidency, but none came anywhere near a major party nomination, even for Vice-President (2). Rep. Shirley Chisolm of Brooklyn ran in 1972, and finished far behind Senator George McGovern. Jesse Jackson sought the Democratic nomination in 1984 and 1988, and ex- Senator Carol Mosely Braun and Al Sharpton went for it in 2004; all lost badly . Alan Keyes, a rightwinger who had served as an ambassador under President Ronald Reagan, sought the Republican nomination in 2000. (Keyes was later the Republican nominee for senator in Illinois in 2004, and lost to Barack Obama.)

The big difference between Obama and these other candidates is that he actually won a statewide office, which proved that he could successfully appeal to white voters in a general election. Jackson and Sharpton had made their careers in racial politics, stirring up black resentment against whites, especially Jews. Any Republcan could have beaten them in a predominantly white constituency. Although Keyes did not engage in racial polarization, he could not compete with candidates like George W Bush or John McCain, who had established political bases.

The public figure most politically similar to Barack Obama, a man of African descent who appeals to whites, is one who never ran for President: Colin Powell. In retrospect, Powell might well have won the 1996 Republican nomination for President, and probably would have done better than Bob Dole, who had litttle appeal beyond the GOP base. As the military leader during the 1991 Gulf War, Powell could have followed Dwight Eisenhower's path from the Army to the White House, but he had no appetite for politics.

Barack Obama, on the other hand, has both the appetite and aptitude for politics in spades. On March 2 he addressed a mass meeting of American-Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) in Chicago, and told the Zionists what they wanted to hear, distinguishing himself from Jesse Jackson. He has already received big-time cash from Jewish moguls in Hollywood.

Whether the junior senator from Illinois can overtake Hillary Clinton, another exemplar of identity politics, will be tested less than ten months from now in Iowa, New Hampshire and Wisconsin. He has a good start.

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(1) The other two were Edward Brooke of Massachusetts and Carol Mosely Braun, also of Illinois. Both lost.

(2) Several black candidates ran for President and VicePresident on minor party tickets, but none ever received a single electoral vote.

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