Iran and the Nuclear Option

"Israel should be wiped off the map!" (1)
Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, October, 2005

This rant, which caused UN Secretary General Kofi Annan to cancel a trip to Iran, cannot be ignored by Israel or the world. The pursuit of nuclear capability by Iran, while under such unstable and genocidal leadership, must be stopped by whatever means are necessary.

Q: What is the main source of violence in the Middle East today?
The hostility between Sunni and Shiite Muslims, which is behind the insurgency in Iraq, and played a role in the Iran-Iraq War. This war killed over a million people, far more than all the Arab-Israel wars and intifada terrorism combined. Saddam Hussein, a Sunni dominating a predominantly Shiite Iraq, attacked Shiite Iran shortly after the Iranian Revolution.

Q: Why was the Shah of Iran overthrown?
Many of the Shah's policies, including alliance with the United States and friendship toward Israel, enraged the Shiite clergy. The Shah had also fostered equality for women and changed the Iranian calendar to downplay the importance of Islam.(2) Even worse, he cancelled the salaries that his government had been paying the mullahs (Muslim ministers).
Ayatollah Ruallah Khomeini, whom the Shah had exiled in 1963, roused the masses against the royal regime through audio-tapes played at mosques throughout the country. Although military leaders staunchly supported the Shah, most of the troops were devout Muslims and obeyed the Ayatollah.

Q: Did Iran trade with Israel after the Revolution?
Yes. During the war with Iraq, Iran ordered American Improved Hawk (I-Hawk) Missiles from Israel. When Israel shipped Tehran the obsolete Hawk Missiles instead (apparently thinking the Iranians would never notice the difference), Iran sent them back. At that point, Col. Oliver North arranged for the I-Hawks to be sent to Iran from the US, hoping that Iran would arrange the release of American hostages held by terrorists in Beirut. A few hostages were released, and North used the profits on the sale to fund the Contras in Nicaragua.

Q: What is the role of Iran in Iraq today?
Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani, leader of the Shiites in Iraq, was born and educated in Iran and maintains a relationship with the Muslim leadership there. Iran, having suffered a great deal in the war with Iraq, has a strong interest in having a friendly regime in Baghdad. Since most Iraqis are Shiite, a majority could be expected to support an alliance with Tehran. Since the US also opposes the Sunni-led insurgency, the US and Iran (despite decades of hostility) are on the same side in Iraq.
Al-Sistani and his followers deny that they favor an Iranian-style Islamic regime in Iraq.

Q: Who rules Iran today?
Ayatollah Ali Khameini, head of the Guardian Council, has been the real power in Iran since the death of Khomeini. The Guardian Council has the power to select candidates in all Iranian national elections, and can veto bills passed the Parliament. Although the President speaks for the regime, he is not its real leader.

Q: Why is Iran enriching uranium?
The government says it intends to use the fuel for a nuclear power plant, but many world leaders suspect Iran is planning to build atomic weapons. Having nuclear weapons makes a nation a serious power in world affairs, and I believe that this is the status the leaders of Iran seek. Atomic weapons could be trusted to deter any big power from attempting to force "regime-change" in Tehran.

Q: If Iran goes nuclear, would it "nuke" Israel?
Despite the inflammatory rhetoric of the current President, I doubt that the Guardian Council would approve such a risky decision. They know that Israel has excellent air-defense and the capability of annihilating Tehran and other Iranian cities in a devastating second-strike.
Aside from strategic considerations, a nuclear strike anywhere in Israel would kill tens of thousands of Arab Muslims, which would possibly restrain the ayatollahs.

Q: What can be done to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons?
Russia, which has provided technical help to Iran in developing atomic power, recently offered to process the uranium in Russia, so as to guarantee the world than none was being diverted to bomb-making. If Iran accepts this offer, this deal may defuse the crisis. The US and Europe continue to use the threat of UN sanctions and diplomatic pressure to restrain Iran from going nuclear.
If none of these measures work, the Iranian atomic reactors could be destroyed by air-strikes. This would be an Act of War, and neither the US nor Israel wants to provoke a war with Iran. If that is the only way to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, though, it would be done.

Q: What are the prospects for internal change in Iran?
Since elections are controlled by the Guardian Council, voting cannot really change the regime. The rule by the Guardian Coucil is supported by the Revolutionary Guards, a type of KGB of fanatic Muslims.
However, there is evidence that large numbers of young Iranians are against the restrictions of the Islamic government, and want peace, modernity, and good relations with America and the West. These people could form a people's movement so strong that current regime would be forced to yield power, just as the Shah did in 1979.
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(1) Maps used in most Arab states are already Israel-free.
(2) The traditional Muslim calendar begins with "The Hegira", when Muhammad moved from Mecca to Medina in 622 CE. This journey began his struggle to establish Islamic power in Mecca.
The Shah's calendar commenced with the accession of King Cyrus (Koresh) the Great i to the throne of Persia in 559 BCE.

Hamas on the Campaign Trail

"They have said, 'Come, let us eradicate them as a nation,
and the name of Israel will be remembered no more'"
Psalm 83, v. 5

This could be the motto of Hamas, the terrorist group that is now seeking representation in the Palestine Parliament to be elected January 25, 2006. The group, whose name means Islamic Resistance Movement, was founded in 1987 when it sparked the first Intifada. Hamas has killed thousands of Israelis, mainly through suicide bombings. Despite having agreed to a ceasefire, Hamas members fire rockets at Israel from Gaza almost daily.

Although Hamas is not expected to win a majority in the Parliament, any substantial share of the seats in Hamas hands will be a big negative factor on the prospects for peace between Israel and the Palestine Authority (PA), which is set to evolve into an independent state. This is because Hamas rejects any peace with the Jewish state.

If Hamas makes a strong showing in the elections, PA President Mahmoud Abbas may need the support of the group to establish a governing coalition, which will mean Hamas members in the cabinet, perhaps heading major departments. This would make it difficult, if not impossible, for Abbas to make any agreements with Israel. Still worse, Hamas leaders who gain stature and visibility through participation in the government could emerge as serious contenders for the next presidency of the PA.

Both Israel and the United States have tried to persuade Abbas not to allow Hamas to participate in the coming elections, to no avail. The "Road Map" to a Palestinian State even calls for the PA to "dismantle" terrorist organizations, such as Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah. Abbas first agreed to the Road Map, then said he could not dismantle these groups. If Hamas plays a significant role in the next Parliament, this obligation of the PA will become moot, and the Road Map will lead to a dead-end.

President George W Bush has taken the position that democracy is good for peace in the Middle East. It certainly has reduced tensions in Europe since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact. The trouble is that among Arab masses, especially Palestinians, belligerency toward Israel is so popular that democracy may give power to the most implacable enemies of peace.

Those given to wishful thinking believe that the responsibilities of governance tend to make radical groups more moderate in their goals and methods. Unfortunately, the historical record does not support this belief. The Nazi Party and Khmer Rouge, for example, became even more brutal after taking power in Germany and Cambodia, respectivley. The Muslim fanatics who rule Iran today are at least as belligerent as those who seized power in 1979.

The prospect of a Palestine Authority ruled by Hamas within the next few years is a serious danger to Israel, even though an attack on Israel by the PA would be suicidal. Remember that Hamas and its terrorist allies have already sponsored numerous suicidal attacks, and they do not shrink from martyrdom. The settlements east of Israel's Security Fence would be especially vulnerable. If Israel is forced to crush the PA in a bloody battle, Israel will be condemned by the UN, Europe, and all Muslim countries. It will become even more of a pariah state than it is now. If that happens, the Rabin/Barak/Sharon policy of ceding land and power to the Palestinians would be exposed as totally bankrupt and worthless.

A Palestine ruled by Hamas would be even a greater threat to Jordan than to Israel, given the big Palestinian population in the Hashemite Kingdom. Jordan has already been attacked by the Al Qaeda faction led by Musab Al-Zarqawi, whose ideology is shared by Hamas. Worse yet, the Palestinian Christian communities, such as in Bethlehem, would have no security under Hamas rule. I expect most Christians would try to emigrate, either to Jordan or Lebanon, since Israel would not admit them.

The rise to power by Hamas should be dreaded by all who seek peace in the Middle East.

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