Israel After Bush
President George W Bush will be remembered as very friendly toward Israel. To his everlasting credit, he severed all contact with Yasser Arafat after the Palestinian leader lied to him about the Karrine A, a boat loaded with Iranian arms intended for Fatah and intercepted by Israeli naval forces.
However, after the death of Arafat, Bush established a warm relationship with the Abbas government, which led to the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza in 2005. Meanwhile, Bush promoted democracy for Arabs, so the Palestine Authority (PA) held fair elections that were won by Hamas. This, in turn, led to the violent Hamas takeover of Gaza.
The Bush Administration has struggled mightily to broker a peace-deal between Israel and the PA before the end of its term in office, but that was not to be.
Many Jewish people fear that President-Elect Barack Obama, who has visited Israel and made many pro-Israel statements, is really anti-Israel and will turn US policy against the Jewish state after taking office. This is partially because the Illinois senator has accepted political support from Arabs and anti-Semites, and has an unfortunate tendency to tell everybody what they want to hear. As a result, both Zionists and anti-Zionists claim that the next President sides with them.
Here is what I believe will really happen in Israel during the next four years:
1. Israeli Election
In view of the corruption and failures of the Kadima Government, I believe that Likud will come in first in the election, and will govern in coalition with Shas and other religious and nationalist parties. The coalition will be dead-set against giving away any part of Jerusalem.
2. Gaza
The ceasefire between Israel and Gaza was abrogated Nov. 4 when Israeli forces found a tunnel under the border. (1) If the Hamas regime resumes rocket attacks into Israel after the Likud Government comes into power, look for an Israeli invasion of Gaza that will crush Hamas.
3. West Bank Negotiations
The US will continue to pressure both Israel and the PA into making a deal, but the issues of Jerusalem and the Right of Return will continue to prevent one. A Likud Government will be more resistant to American and international pressure than the current one.
4. Syria and Hezbollah
If Syria is willing to accept the presence of neutral forces in the Golan to prevent either Syrian or Hezbollah forces from using the Heights to attack Israel, a deal is possible. The neutral forces could be American, French, German or even Turkish. The fact that both Israel and the United States have attacked Syrian territory with impunity in the past year proves that Syria is not strong enough to secure its borders or airspace.
Syria needs Hezbollah to control Lebanon, but cannot afford to let the Shiite militia into the Golan. Hezbollah is armed with thousands of rockets, and could launch them into Israel at any time. If that happens after Likud takes power, the new Israeli Government will devastate southern Lebanon before a cease-fire is imposed.
5. Iran
The US will not attack Iran's nuclear facilities, and will try to dissuade Israel from doing so. There are signs that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is losing power, and may well be replaced in 2009. (2) If so, I believe his successor will allow UN nuclear-inspectors back into the country to verify that the Islamic Republic is not enriching uranium to the levels required for an atomic bomb. This could defuse the crisis, end the sanctions on Iran, and prevent a catastrophic war.
On the other hand, if Israeli intelligence determines that Iran is anywhere near building an atomic bomb, Israel will bomb Iran with conventional weapons. This would trigger attacks upon Israel by both Iran and Hezbollah, God forbid, leading to a big war in the Middle East.
6. The US-Israel Special Relationship
Although Israel has become dependent upon American foreign aid, diplomatic support, and military co-operation, the US has only limited leverage on Israeli actions. This is because no American president wants a confrontation with the Israel Lobby and its many friends in Congress. The last one to incur the wrath of the Lobby, President George H W Bush, was defeated for re-election (3). Members of Congress who openly oppose aid to Israel are targeted for defeat, and most of them lose. (4)
I intend to review each of these predictions in the Glazerbeam following the 2012 Election.
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(1) Associated Press, November 5, 2008.
(2) See "Iran Parliament ousts Ahmadinejad ally for faking college degree", NY Times, Nov. 5, 2008, quoted in that day's Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, page 13A.
(3) The issue was $10 billion dollars of loan guarantees for Israel to settle recent immigrants. Bush Sr complained he was "Just one guy here against hundreds of lobbyists."
(4) Senator Charles Percy (R, IL), Rep. Paul Findley (R, IL) and Rep. Cynthia McKinney (D, GA) are a few examples.
However, after the death of Arafat, Bush established a warm relationship with the Abbas government, which led to the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza in 2005. Meanwhile, Bush promoted democracy for Arabs, so the Palestine Authority (PA) held fair elections that were won by Hamas. This, in turn, led to the violent Hamas takeover of Gaza.
The Bush Administration has struggled mightily to broker a peace-deal between Israel and the PA before the end of its term in office, but that was not to be.
Many Jewish people fear that President-Elect Barack Obama, who has visited Israel and made many pro-Israel statements, is really anti-Israel and will turn US policy against the Jewish state after taking office. This is partially because the Illinois senator has accepted political support from Arabs and anti-Semites, and has an unfortunate tendency to tell everybody what they want to hear. As a result, both Zionists and anti-Zionists claim that the next President sides with them.
Here is what I believe will really happen in Israel during the next four years:
1. Israeli Election
In view of the corruption and failures of the Kadima Government, I believe that Likud will come in first in the election, and will govern in coalition with Shas and other religious and nationalist parties. The coalition will be dead-set against giving away any part of Jerusalem.
2. Gaza
The ceasefire between Israel and Gaza was abrogated Nov. 4 when Israeli forces found a tunnel under the border. (1) If the Hamas regime resumes rocket attacks into Israel after the Likud Government comes into power, look for an Israeli invasion of Gaza that will crush Hamas.
3. West Bank Negotiations
The US will continue to pressure both Israel and the PA into making a deal, but the issues of Jerusalem and the Right of Return will continue to prevent one. A Likud Government will be more resistant to American and international pressure than the current one.
4. Syria and Hezbollah
If Syria is willing to accept the presence of neutral forces in the Golan to prevent either Syrian or Hezbollah forces from using the Heights to attack Israel, a deal is possible. The neutral forces could be American, French, German or even Turkish. The fact that both Israel and the United States have attacked Syrian territory with impunity in the past year proves that Syria is not strong enough to secure its borders or airspace.
Syria needs Hezbollah to control Lebanon, but cannot afford to let the Shiite militia into the Golan. Hezbollah is armed with thousands of rockets, and could launch them into Israel at any time. If that happens after Likud takes power, the new Israeli Government will devastate southern Lebanon before a cease-fire is imposed.
5. Iran
The US will not attack Iran's nuclear facilities, and will try to dissuade Israel from doing so. There are signs that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is losing power, and may well be replaced in 2009. (2) If so, I believe his successor will allow UN nuclear-inspectors back into the country to verify that the Islamic Republic is not enriching uranium to the levels required for an atomic bomb. This could defuse the crisis, end the sanctions on Iran, and prevent a catastrophic war.
On the other hand, if Israeli intelligence determines that Iran is anywhere near building an atomic bomb, Israel will bomb Iran with conventional weapons. This would trigger attacks upon Israel by both Iran and Hezbollah, God forbid, leading to a big war in the Middle East.
6. The US-Israel Special Relationship
Although Israel has become dependent upon American foreign aid, diplomatic support, and military co-operation, the US has only limited leverage on Israeli actions. This is because no American president wants a confrontation with the Israel Lobby and its many friends in Congress. The last one to incur the wrath of the Lobby, President George H W Bush, was defeated for re-election (3). Members of Congress who openly oppose aid to Israel are targeted for defeat, and most of them lose. (4)
I intend to review each of these predictions in the Glazerbeam following the 2012 Election.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
(1) Associated Press, November 5, 2008.
(2) See "Iran Parliament ousts Ahmadinejad ally for faking college degree", NY Times, Nov. 5, 2008, quoted in that day's Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, page 13A.
(3) The issue was $10 billion dollars of loan guarantees for Israel to settle recent immigrants. Bush Sr complained he was "Just one guy here against hundreds of lobbyists."
(4) Senator Charles Percy (R, IL), Rep. Paul Findley (R, IL) and Rep. Cynthia McKinney (D, GA) are a few examples.
posted by Gerald S Glazer at 9:56 AM
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