The Ayatollah Who Killed the Revolution
Although some street skirmishes continue, the Green Revolution in Iran, highly touted by this blog and CNN, was effectively quashed by Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Hoseyni Khameini on Friday, June 19, when he declared his unqualified support for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Khameini warned of dire consequences if protests over his re-election continued, and since then police and militia forces have spared no bullets in enforcing his decree. The Shah lost his throne when his soldiers refused to fire on the mobs demanding his ouster; the Besij militia now is only too happy to beat and kill the enemies of the current regime.
Iran is not alone in having a permanent leader who outranks all elected officials: Jordan, Thailand, and Saudi Arabia are ruled by hereditary monarchs; the Vatican State is ruled by a pope, who is elected, but never faces re-election. In the Soviet Union, the General Secretary of the Communist Party held effective control over all government officials. (1)
I was wrong in believing that the Supreme Leader would try to prevent bloodshed by calling for a run-off election between the top two contenders, thus maintaining a spiritual position above politics. By aligning himself and his office with Ahmadinejad, Khameini has forfeited this role, and has incurred the wrath of the millions of Iranians who believe the election has been stolen. In the fractured state of Iranian politics, Khameini is now clearly in the camp of the hardliners (along with Ahmadinejad), leaving former President Hashemi Rafsanjani as effective leader of the relatively moderate politicians. Mir H Mousavi, who still believes he was robbed of the presidency, (like Al Gore in 2000) is already fading as political force.
Khameini has been a restraining influence on the confrontational inclinations of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, but his rhetoric about Israel is every bit as vitriolic. In 2001 Khameini declared that "this cancerous tumor of a state should be removed from the region." When President Ahmadinejad said in 2008 that Iran was not against "the people of Israel" Khameini insisted that it was "nonsense to say we are a friend of the Israeli people." On the other hand, the Supreme Leader said in 2005 that " the Islamic Republic ....will never threaten any country." (2) Perhaps Khameini hates Israel even more than Ahmadinejad, but does not want a war .
Even more important is Ali Khameini's fatwa (or psak, religious decree) that nuclear weapons are forbidden by Islam. According to some reports, the military leaders of Iran are pressing for development of nukes anyway, and Khameini may have caved in to them on this. If so, Israel will attempt to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities and missile launching sites sometime soon, which will mean war between the two countries.
If Mousavi had won, there would have been a chance to prevent this nightmare scenario. Now it appears inevitable.
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(1) Like Iran, the Soviet Union had elections----but all candidates had to be approved by the Communist Party "nomenklatura", the counterpart to the Guardian Council in Iran. Before Leonid Brezhnev, the President of the Soviet Union was a powerless figurehead.
(2) From Ali Khameini's biography in Wikipedia.
Iran is not alone in having a permanent leader who outranks all elected officials: Jordan, Thailand, and Saudi Arabia are ruled by hereditary monarchs; the Vatican State is ruled by a pope, who is elected, but never faces re-election. In the Soviet Union, the General Secretary of the Communist Party held effective control over all government officials. (1)
I was wrong in believing that the Supreme Leader would try to prevent bloodshed by calling for a run-off election between the top two contenders, thus maintaining a spiritual position above politics. By aligning himself and his office with Ahmadinejad, Khameini has forfeited this role, and has incurred the wrath of the millions of Iranians who believe the election has been stolen. In the fractured state of Iranian politics, Khameini is now clearly in the camp of the hardliners (along with Ahmadinejad), leaving former President Hashemi Rafsanjani as effective leader of the relatively moderate politicians. Mir H Mousavi, who still believes he was robbed of the presidency, (like Al Gore in 2000) is already fading as political force.
Khameini has been a restraining influence on the confrontational inclinations of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, but his rhetoric about Israel is every bit as vitriolic. In 2001 Khameini declared that "this cancerous tumor of a state should be removed from the region." When President Ahmadinejad said in 2008 that Iran was not against "the people of Israel" Khameini insisted that it was "nonsense to say we are a friend of the Israeli people." On the other hand, the Supreme Leader said in 2005 that " the Islamic Republic ....will never threaten any country." (2) Perhaps Khameini hates Israel even more than Ahmadinejad, but does not want a war .
Even more important is Ali Khameini's fatwa (or psak, religious decree) that nuclear weapons are forbidden by Islam. According to some reports, the military leaders of Iran are pressing for development of nukes anyway, and Khameini may have caved in to them on this. If so, Israel will attempt to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities and missile launching sites sometime soon, which will mean war between the two countries.
If Mousavi had won, there would have been a chance to prevent this nightmare scenario. Now it appears inevitable.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(1) Like Iran, the Soviet Union had elections----but all candidates had to be approved by the Communist Party "nomenklatura", the counterpart to the Guardian Council in Iran. Before Leonid Brezhnev, the President of the Soviet Union was a powerless figurehead.
(2) From Ali Khameini's biography in Wikipedia.
posted by Gerald S Glazer at 9:29 AM
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