How the GOP Can Win in 2010

Republicans swept the races for Governor of New Jersey and Virginia, but lost both special elections for Congress (one in NY, one in California). The gubernatorial victories refute the claim that the GOP has dwindled into a narrow base of white southern evangelicals; Republican candidates won over independents by a two-to-one margin in both states, which backed Barack Obama only a year ago. New Jersey is a northern industrial state, with a very diverse population, including large numbers of Jews and other minorities.

But how can Republicans win the 2010 Congressional elections?

I contend that President Obama has made a major strategic error in his foreign policy that is ripe for exploitation by Republicans: the effort to create a Palestinian state. As noted in several previous postings, this effort is futile, because Hamas does not want a peace settlement with Israel, and Fatah is too weak to make a settlement without Hamas support. Apparently Obama, Clinton, Ross, Emanuel,and Mitchell do not know this.

Right now the dispute seems to concern expansion of Israeli settlements on the West Bank; the Palestinians insist that all settlement activity be halted, and Obama agrees. (Actually, all American administrations since Israel acquired the West Bank in 1967 have been opposed to the settlements, but this President has pressured Israel more vehemently than any since George H W Bush in 1991.) Moreover, Obama has visited Egypt since becoming President, but not Israel. He has moved the US from a staunchly pro-Israel position toward a more neutral stance vis-a-vis the Palestinians. (1)

Unlike many of Obama's policies in domestic affairs (such as health-care reform, economic stimulus, reduction of pollution, etc.), the shift in Middle East policy has a very small political constituency: Muslim-Americans, J Street, leftists and peace-activists. Jews and pro-Israel Christians vastly outnumber them. Democratic candidates for the House and Senate should be asked at every opportunity if they support President Obama's efforts to halt settlement activity and create a Palestinian state!

Republican candidates can appeal to pro-Zionist voters by calling for a Congressional resolution that defends the rights of Israeli settlers to build in the West Bank. Congress is always more friendly to Israel than is the Executive Branch (especially the State Department), but rarely breaks with Administration policy. Would AIPAC support such a resolution?

The obvious choice to lead this effort would be Rep. Eric Cantor of Virginia, the only Jewish Republican in all of Congress. (2) Most of the issues touted by Republican candidates, such as opposition to abortion and the right to own guns, leave Jewish voters cold, but unqualified support for Israel will get to some of them. The downside of emphasizing this issue is very minor, since most anti-Israel activists are so far left that they would not vote Republican anyway.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(1) However, the US is aligned with Israel against Iran. So far, Obama has been no more effective that George W Bush was in opposing Iran's nuclear program.

(2) Arlen Spector of Pennsylvania was the last Jewish Republican in the Senate before he switched parties. There have been many others, such as Norman Coleman (of Minnesota, who lost to another Jew: Al Franken), Warren Rudman (New Hampshire) and Chic Hecht (Nevada).