How Long Will Israel Be Jewish?
"Israel's Jewish population is growing at 1.8%,...the growth rate for Arab Muslims (in Israel) is 2.6%"
Central Bureau of Statistics of Israel, Sept. 12, 2007
Right now Jews comprise about 75.8% of Israel's 7.2 million people, while about 20% are Arabs, and the rest are other ethnic groups. If present trends continue, in 2157 Jews will be less than half of the population of Israel. If the State is still a democracy by that time, the non-Jewish majority will be able to eliminate the Jewish nature of the country and repeal the Law of Return. Without a shot being fired or bomb detonated, Israel as we know it will no longer exist.
But will these growth rates really continue into the future? Not likely.
First, at current growth rates, in 150 years the Jewish population would be 14.5 times what it is now, or about 79 million people. (1) The non-Jewish population would grow by a factor of 47 to nearly 82 million, for a total population of about 161 million people, more than half the current US population in a country about the size of New Jersey. Given the shortage of drinkable water for the current population, this kind of growth is hard to believe. The current population growth rates are simply not sustainable over the long run. Enlarging the borders of Israel, as in 1967, would add Arab residents and hasten the day when Jews become a minority.
Here are two other factors that could keep Israel Jewish:
1. The orthodox birthrate
The average orthodox Jewish woman in Israel gives birth to seven children during her lifetime, compared to 4 or 5 per Muslim woman (down from 9 fifty years ago) and only 2 per non-religious Israeli woman (2). Although today the orthodox are less than 15 percent of Israeli Jews, within one generation the number of orthodox Jews should increase by a factor of 3.5, while the secular Jewish population would remain about the same size. If the kiruv (outreach) efforts of Israel's orthodox community are successful, the orthodox population will grow even faster.
2. Jewish immigration
The inflow of Jews from the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe has tapered off over the past ten years. However, there is a real prospect of Jewish immigration to Israel from South Africa, South America and Western Europe, especially France. This immigration may be driven by increased anti-Semitism and political instability.
If Israel's high-tech economy continues to grow, and the country enjoys a modicum of peace, Jews will want to live there.
3. Border Adjustments
The Government of Israel will soon undertake negotiations with the Palestine Authority over the future border between Israel and Palestine. Do not be surprised if Olmert offers to trade some land with a majority Arab population for land in the West Bank containing Jewish setttlements. There will be massive resistance in Israel against giving away any part of the present State, and Israeli Arabs may protest against being transferred into Palestine against their will. But it could still happen, and the result would be a smaller Arab population in Israel.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------(1) This is because the growth factor for Jews would be (1.018) to the power 150 which equals about 14.53 and that for others would be (1.026)to the same power, which is about 47.
(2) Fertility in Israel, by Dov Friedlander.
Central Bureau of Statistics of Israel, Sept. 12, 2007
Right now Jews comprise about 75.8% of Israel's 7.2 million people, while about 20% are Arabs, and the rest are other ethnic groups. If present trends continue, in 2157 Jews will be less than half of the population of Israel. If the State is still a democracy by that time, the non-Jewish majority will be able to eliminate the Jewish nature of the country and repeal the Law of Return. Without a shot being fired or bomb detonated, Israel as we know it will no longer exist.
But will these growth rates really continue into the future? Not likely.
First, at current growth rates, in 150 years the Jewish population would be 14.5 times what it is now, or about 79 million people. (1) The non-Jewish population would grow by a factor of 47 to nearly 82 million, for a total population of about 161 million people, more than half the current US population in a country about the size of New Jersey. Given the shortage of drinkable water for the current population, this kind of growth is hard to believe. The current population growth rates are simply not sustainable over the long run. Enlarging the borders of Israel, as in 1967, would add Arab residents and hasten the day when Jews become a minority.
Here are two other factors that could keep Israel Jewish:
1. The orthodox birthrate
The average orthodox Jewish woman in Israel gives birth to seven children during her lifetime, compared to 4 or 5 per Muslim woman (down from 9 fifty years ago) and only 2 per non-religious Israeli woman (2). Although today the orthodox are less than 15 percent of Israeli Jews, within one generation the number of orthodox Jews should increase by a factor of 3.5, while the secular Jewish population would remain about the same size. If the kiruv (outreach) efforts of Israel's orthodox community are successful, the orthodox population will grow even faster.
2. Jewish immigration
The inflow of Jews from the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe has tapered off over the past ten years. However, there is a real prospect of Jewish immigration to Israel from South Africa, South America and Western Europe, especially France. This immigration may be driven by increased anti-Semitism and political instability.
If Israel's high-tech economy continues to grow, and the country enjoys a modicum of peace, Jews will want to live there.
3. Border Adjustments
The Government of Israel will soon undertake negotiations with the Palestine Authority over the future border between Israel and Palestine. Do not be surprised if Olmert offers to trade some land with a majority Arab population for land in the West Bank containing Jewish setttlements. There will be massive resistance in Israel against giving away any part of the present State, and Israeli Arabs may protest against being transferred into Palestine against their will. But it could still happen, and the result would be a smaller Arab population in Israel.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------(1) This is because the growth factor for Jews would be (1.018) to the power 150 which equals about 14.53 and that for others would be (1.026)to the same power, which is about 47.
(2) Fertility in Israel, by Dov Friedlander.
posted by Gerald S Glazer at 10:10 AM
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