Landslide for Assad
Syrian voters have re-elected President Bashar Assad with an astounding 97.62 percent of the vote. No "hanging-chad" recount needed in Damascus! Since Assad was unopposed, voters could only vote Yes or No on retaining the former ophthalmologist for another seven-year term. Even without a contest, Syria reported a 95% turnout in the May 27 election, compared to about 50% in the typical US presidential balloting. Assad's approval rating easily beats that of George W Bush (about 30%) and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert (about 3%).
Despite lack of any military or administrative experience, Bashar Assad was chosen President of Syria in 2000 upon the death of his father, Hafez Assad, who seized power in a military coup in 1968. Like North Korea, Syria maintains the trappings of a republic, but when the ruler dies, power passes to his son, as in a monarchy. The Assad family belongs to the minority Alawite sect, which dominates Syrian military and internal security forces. On the surface, support for the Assads appears virtually unanimous, but I suspect that below this calm surface lies a seething cauldron of dissatisfaction suppressed by fear of the state security forces.
President Assad has kept his country independent and at peace since taking office, but he faces an unfriendly international environment. Here is the rundown:
Lebanon: The Syrian army withdrew from Lebanon in 2005 under heavy international pressure after the assassination of former Lebanese Primier Rafik Harriri. The UN is continuing to investigate charges of Syrian responsibility for the murder, and Assad has refused to co-operate. Syria continues to arm and support the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon and is believed to have numerous civilian spies and operatives in the country.
Israel: The loss of the Golan Heights (about one percent of Syria's land) to Israel in the 1967 Six Day War is an ongoing humiliation to Damascus. Syria fought to regain the territory in the 1973 Yom Kippur War, but lost again. Of the countries that fought Israel in 1967, Syria is the only one that maintains a state of belligerency toward the Jewish state. Despite reports of informal talks between Syrian and Israeli officials early this year, no public negotiations have taken place.
Some Israelis have claimed that Syria's acquisition of new long-range missiles is a sign that Damascus is planning another war, but I doubt that Bashar Assad is that stupid or reckless. Hafez Assad avoided war with Israeli forces in Lebanon in the early 1980's, even when the Israelis were only a few kilometers from Syrian positions in the Bekaa Valley. My prediction is that Assad II will follow his father's cautious policy, even while fomenting a proxy war via Hezbollah.
United States: Although Syria is properly included on the US list of countries that support terrorism, Damascus is helping US efforts against Al Qaida. (1) In fact, the US has extradited some suspected terrorists to Syria, where they have been tortured into co-operating. Terrorists and insurgents have been entering western Iraq from Syria, but Syria denies allowing them to do so. Assad must be concerned that factional fighting in Iraq could spill over the border into his country, possibly destabilizing his regime.
A few years ago it seemed likely that President Bush would target Syria for regime-change, perhaps using Iraq as a base. The ongoing debacle in Iraq, increasingly unpopular in Congress, makes this very, very improbable today.
Meanwhile, President Assad has been a charming host to visiting Americans, such as Representatives Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Darrel Issa (R-CA). He also gave NBC News reporter Diane Sawyer an hour-long exclusive interview. Diplomatic contacts between Damascus and Washington about Iraq have been reported .
It appears that Assad is trying hard to keep the US happy, while maintaining his standing among Arab hard-liners by supporting Hezbollah against Israel. So far, it seems to be working.
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(1) Al Qaida in Iraq has been involved in massacres of Shiites. Since Iran is a Shiite state, it is presumably pressuring Syria into taking action against Al Qaida, which has been infiltrating Iraq from Syria. Since Iran is Syria's only ally, Damascus will listen to Tehran on this.
So the US, Iran and Syria are all united against Al Qaida. The Middle East produces strange alliances.
Despite lack of any military or administrative experience, Bashar Assad was chosen President of Syria in 2000 upon the death of his father, Hafez Assad, who seized power in a military coup in 1968. Like North Korea, Syria maintains the trappings of a republic, but when the ruler dies, power passes to his son, as in a monarchy. The Assad family belongs to the minority Alawite sect, which dominates Syrian military and internal security forces. On the surface, support for the Assads appears virtually unanimous, but I suspect that below this calm surface lies a seething cauldron of dissatisfaction suppressed by fear of the state security forces.
President Assad has kept his country independent and at peace since taking office, but he faces an unfriendly international environment. Here is the rundown:
Lebanon: The Syrian army withdrew from Lebanon in 2005 under heavy international pressure after the assassination of former Lebanese Primier Rafik Harriri. The UN is continuing to investigate charges of Syrian responsibility for the murder, and Assad has refused to co-operate. Syria continues to arm and support the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon and is believed to have numerous civilian spies and operatives in the country.
Israel: The loss of the Golan Heights (about one percent of Syria's land) to Israel in the 1967 Six Day War is an ongoing humiliation to Damascus. Syria fought to regain the territory in the 1973 Yom Kippur War, but lost again. Of the countries that fought Israel in 1967, Syria is the only one that maintains a state of belligerency toward the Jewish state. Despite reports of informal talks between Syrian and Israeli officials early this year, no public negotiations have taken place.
Some Israelis have claimed that Syria's acquisition of new long-range missiles is a sign that Damascus is planning another war, but I doubt that Bashar Assad is that stupid or reckless. Hafez Assad avoided war with Israeli forces in Lebanon in the early 1980's, even when the Israelis were only a few kilometers from Syrian positions in the Bekaa Valley. My prediction is that Assad II will follow his father's cautious policy, even while fomenting a proxy war via Hezbollah.
United States: Although Syria is properly included on the US list of countries that support terrorism, Damascus is helping US efforts against Al Qaida. (1) In fact, the US has extradited some suspected terrorists to Syria, where they have been tortured into co-operating. Terrorists and insurgents have been entering western Iraq from Syria, but Syria denies allowing them to do so. Assad must be concerned that factional fighting in Iraq could spill over the border into his country, possibly destabilizing his regime.
A few years ago it seemed likely that President Bush would target Syria for regime-change, perhaps using Iraq as a base. The ongoing debacle in Iraq, increasingly unpopular in Congress, makes this very, very improbable today.
Meanwhile, President Assad has been a charming host to visiting Americans, such as Representatives Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Darrel Issa (R-CA). He also gave NBC News reporter Diane Sawyer an hour-long exclusive interview. Diplomatic contacts between Damascus and Washington about Iraq have been reported .
It appears that Assad is trying hard to keep the US happy, while maintaining his standing among Arab hard-liners by supporting Hezbollah against Israel. So far, it seems to be working.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(1) Al Qaida in Iraq has been involved in massacres of Shiites. Since Iran is a Shiite state, it is presumably pressuring Syria into taking action against Al Qaida, which has been infiltrating Iraq from Syria. Since Iran is Syria's only ally, Damascus will listen to Tehran on this.
So the US, Iran and Syria are all united against Al Qaida. The Middle East produces strange alliances.
posted by Gerald S Glazer at 8:32 AM
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