End of the Road
"Palestinian people have apparently voted for change, but we believe their aspirations for peace....remained unchanged."
Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice (1)
The Palestinian people expressed their true aspirations on January 25, when they elected 76 members of the terrorist group Hamas to their 132-seat parliament. Obviously, the vote means that most Palestinians aspire to terrorism and the destruction of Israel, rather than peace, but in the looking-glass world of the Bush Administration, any news (good or bad) confirms the wisdom of its policies.
In much of the Muslim world US policies are far more popular with the ruling elites than with the people. This is true of Pakistan, Egypt, Jordan and Afghanistan for starters. (The opposite is true in Iran). The spread of democracy in these countries, as pushed by President Bush, can be expected to bring to power politicians more in tune with the tenets of Islam than those who hold power now. (2)
President Bush said that the US will not deal with a government led by a party that wants to destroy Israel. This means that the Road Map to Peace, endorsed by the Quartet of powers (3) is dead, and that the US will stop urging Israel to make concessions to the Palestine Authority (PA). Some members of Congress have also called for ending US aid to PA if Hamas takes over, which would further reduce American influence.
Here are a few predictions about the consequences of the Hamas victory for the major players in the region:
Palestine Authority. President Mahmoud Abbas (aka Abu Mazen), a conciliator at heart, may adjust to the new reality enough to complete his 4-year term as President, but he will have about as much power as Queen Elizabeth. Even when he had Parliament behind him he did very little to rein-in Hamas; he will do even less now. Even if Hamas soldiers join the PA Security Force, the group will keep its own command structure and weapons, and will retain the option of using military force. Eventually Hamas will break the truce engineered by Abu Mazen and will resume terrorism against Israel, perhaps with rockets over the Security Fence. A war with Israel would be suicidal for Hamas, but that never stopped them before.
Israel. The Oslo Agreement, the Handshake, the Road Map, and the Gaza withdrawal have all gone down the drain with the Hamas victory. According to the Associated Press "Israel supported Hamas' early growth as a counterbalance to .. Arafat's PLO"(4).
If this is true, Israel supported two enemies at about the same time.
Ehud Olmert, interim Prime Minister, has promised more withdrawals in the West Bank if he and his Kadima Party win the March 28 election. In the wake of the Hamas win, he will have difficulty defending this position against Likud nominee Benyamin Netanyahu. Maybe Sharon was popular enough to win on this platform, but I doubt that Olmert can do it.
The Security Fence, still only about half complete, looks more and more like a future eastern boundary of Israel. But it won't be high enough to block rockets.
Jordan. King Abdullah II, whose population is nearly half Palestinian, should be deeply concerned about the emergence of a radical Arab regime on his border. Look for Jordan to soft-pedal the relationships with the US and Israel in hopes of preventing a rebellion by Hamas-sympathizers.
Europe. The Hamas victory provides a perfect excuse for European powers to wash their hands of the Arab-Israeli dispute for the foreseeable future. Without American support, and without a Palestinian government committed to peace, any further efforts to settle the conflict would be pointless. Despite a strong tilt toward the Arab position, three major European countries (England, Spain and France) have suffered substantial Muslim terrorism.
Until about 1990, the platfom of PLO was about as hostile to Israel as Hamas is now. Perhaps eventually Hamas will also follow the same path toward a peaceful settlement. Meanwhile, as John Gotti exclaimed after the murder of mob boss Paul Castellano, "The gangsters are back in charge!"
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(1) Quoted in the Milwaukee Jounal Sentinel, Jan. 27, 2006, page 11A.
(2) See the March 6, 2005, Glazerbeam "Democracy for the Arabs?"
(3) The United States, Russia, United Nations, and European Union.
(4) Same source as (1), page 12A
Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice (1)
The Palestinian people expressed their true aspirations on January 25, when they elected 76 members of the terrorist group Hamas to their 132-seat parliament. Obviously, the vote means that most Palestinians aspire to terrorism and the destruction of Israel, rather than peace, but in the looking-glass world of the Bush Administration, any news (good or bad) confirms the wisdom of its policies.
In much of the Muslim world US policies are far more popular with the ruling elites than with the people. This is true of Pakistan, Egypt, Jordan and Afghanistan for starters. (The opposite is true in Iran). The spread of democracy in these countries, as pushed by President Bush, can be expected to bring to power politicians more in tune with the tenets of Islam than those who hold power now. (2)
President Bush said that the US will not deal with a government led by a party that wants to destroy Israel. This means that the Road Map to Peace, endorsed by the Quartet of powers (3) is dead, and that the US will stop urging Israel to make concessions to the Palestine Authority (PA). Some members of Congress have also called for ending US aid to PA if Hamas takes over, which would further reduce American influence.
Here are a few predictions about the consequences of the Hamas victory for the major players in the region:
Palestine Authority. President Mahmoud Abbas (aka Abu Mazen), a conciliator at heart, may adjust to the new reality enough to complete his 4-year term as President, but he will have about as much power as Queen Elizabeth. Even when he had Parliament behind him he did very little to rein-in Hamas; he will do even less now. Even if Hamas soldiers join the PA Security Force, the group will keep its own command structure and weapons, and will retain the option of using military force. Eventually Hamas will break the truce engineered by Abu Mazen and will resume terrorism against Israel, perhaps with rockets over the Security Fence. A war with Israel would be suicidal for Hamas, but that never stopped them before.
Israel. The Oslo Agreement, the Handshake, the Road Map, and the Gaza withdrawal have all gone down the drain with the Hamas victory. According to the Associated Press "Israel supported Hamas' early growth as a counterbalance to .. Arafat's PLO"(4).
If this is true, Israel supported two enemies at about the same time.
Ehud Olmert, interim Prime Minister, has promised more withdrawals in the West Bank if he and his Kadima Party win the March 28 election. In the wake of the Hamas win, he will have difficulty defending this position against Likud nominee Benyamin Netanyahu. Maybe Sharon was popular enough to win on this platform, but I doubt that Olmert can do it.
The Security Fence, still only about half complete, looks more and more like a future eastern boundary of Israel. But it won't be high enough to block rockets.
Jordan. King Abdullah II, whose population is nearly half Palestinian, should be deeply concerned about the emergence of a radical Arab regime on his border. Look for Jordan to soft-pedal the relationships with the US and Israel in hopes of preventing a rebellion by Hamas-sympathizers.
Europe. The Hamas victory provides a perfect excuse for European powers to wash their hands of the Arab-Israeli dispute for the foreseeable future. Without American support, and without a Palestinian government committed to peace, any further efforts to settle the conflict would be pointless. Despite a strong tilt toward the Arab position, three major European countries (England, Spain and France) have suffered substantial Muslim terrorism.
Until about 1990, the platfom of PLO was about as hostile to Israel as Hamas is now. Perhaps eventually Hamas will also follow the same path toward a peaceful settlement. Meanwhile, as John Gotti exclaimed after the murder of mob boss Paul Castellano, "The gangsters are back in charge!"
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(1) Quoted in the Milwaukee Jounal Sentinel, Jan. 27, 2006, page 11A.
(2) See the March 6, 2005, Glazerbeam "Democracy for the Arabs?"
(3) The United States, Russia, United Nations, and European Union.
(4) Same source as (1), page 12A
posted by Gerald S Glazer at 8:39 AM
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