The Great Iranian Hope

Former President of Iran Seyed Mohammad Khatami, who led the Islamic Republic from 1997 through early 2005, has declared his candidacy for a third term in that position in the June, 2009, election. He will face incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (1) in a political battle that could determine the fate of the Middle East.

During his eight years in the presidency, Khatami strove to liberalize the Iranian regime while proposing dialogue with the United States and other western democracies. He suggested abolition of nuclear and chemical weapons, negotiations over Iran's nuclear program, and supported the "two-state solution" to the Arab-Israeli conflict. Israeli President Moshe Katsav, who was born in Iran, tried to converse with Khatami in Farsi at an international conference, but Khatami denied shaking hands or responding to Katsav.

Khatami's efforts at reform were thwarted at every point by the Guardian Council, the real power in Iran. In the struggle between hardline Islamists and those seeking modernization and reform of Iran, the former seemed to hold all the cards that counted: The Guardian Council, the Revolutionary Guards, and control of the military.

Viewed from a western perspective, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been an unmitigated disaster for Iran. His confrontational attitude toward the US, the UN and the EU over nuclear inspection has resulted in trade sanctions that have made life in Iran much worse for most people. His hyperbolic threats to destroy Israel have brought Iran to the brink of war. Even neighboring Arab states have privately expressed fear of Iran. (2)

However, for those Iranians imbued with the spirit of jihad and shahida (martyrdom), Ahmadinejad is just right. For them, he is the champion of Shia Islam and the arch-enemy of Israel and western civilization. He arms Hamas and Hezbollah, so that they can conduct a proxy war against the Jewish state. Although the President denies that his government is working on nuclear weapons, he defies the world by continuing the enrichment of uranium, which could be used for making them . (3) Under his leadership, Iran has sent a satellite into orbit. Those who admire his boldness and pride may not be a majority of Iranians, but they are a powerful sector of the electorate.

Even if Khatami wins the 2009 election, he will again be faced with the overweening power of the Guardian Council and its control of the security forces. But at least Ahmadinejad will be gone, and the government ministries will be returned to the hands of moderates and technocrats. UN inspectors will be re-admitted to all of Iran's nuclear facilities, so that the potential of enriching uranium to weapons-grade levels will be eliminated. If so, international sanctions against Iran will be lifted, and diplomatic relations with the United States will be restored. If Khatami cuts off arms to Hamas and Hezbollah (which I believe he would, although he has not publicly promised to do so), the threat of war in the Middle East would be drastically reduced.

If I could vote in the Iranian presidential election, I would cast my ballot for Seyed Mohammad Khatami. The last presidential candidate endorsed by the Glazerbeam won, but this blog appears only in English, so it may have less clout in Iran .
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(1) The name, which means "of the race of Ahmed (Mohammad)" was invented by the President's father.

(2) It was reported that some Arab governments offered Israel the use of their airspace for an air-raid on Iran's nuclear facilities.

(3) Uranium must be enriched to at least 80% U-235 for making an atomic bomb, while 20% U-235 is adequate for generating electricity. ( Nearly all uranium mined is U-238, which means that each atom contains a total of 238 protons and neutrons. The lighter isotope, which has 3 fewer neutrons, is far more radioactive.)

Stimulating Ideas

"Not a single Republican voted with the majority last week when the House approved (the) ...$819 billion combination of tax cuts and new spending."
Yahoo News, Feb. 1, 2009

Although there is widespread agreement that the US government must pump money into the economy to alleviate the current recession, Republicans in the House would rather cut taxes than spend money on government programs. Still, Gov. Sarah Palin (R, Alaska) came to Washington to urge fellow Republicans to support aid to the states, especially Alaska.

I would support both tax cuts and public works programs provided that they were in accordance with these principles:

1. Tax-cuts for business must be tied to increasing employment.

2. Tax-cuts for individuals must be directed to the lowest-income tax-payers.

3. Public works programs must be geared toward reducing dependence upon oil and reducing pollution.

Here are some specific examples of stimulus provisions I want to see in the final bill:

1. Cut social-security taxes from about 15 % of base pay (including both employee and employer portions) to about 11%. This would encourage businesses to hire more workers, and would reduce the tax burden for all workers, including those who earn too little to pay income tax. Raising the taxable pay-base from about $100,000 to about $150,000 would soften the impact to the Social Security Trust Fund without hurting low-income workers at all, or deter firms from hiring them.

2. Emphasize public mass transit in allocating federal transportation grants. For example, the New York City subway system, which provides essential transportation for millions of commuters daily, needs massive repairs and modernization. Public regional transit authorities also need money to keep riders from driving to work instead, which helps to hold down oil consumption and air-pollution. Federal money could enable these systems to replace old gas-guzzling buses with hybrids and electric vehicles.

3. Establish Summer Boot Camps to provide college and trade-school students with two months of military training each summer, between academic years. Participants would receive the same pay as army recruits, but would not be required to enlist in the military. The program should be integrated into ROTC, so those who successfully completed eight months of training over four summers and graduated college would be eligible for officer commissions in the National Guard or any other branch of the service.
Although participation would be entirely voluntary, I predict that many of the young people who completed the training camps would find military life attractive and would enlist after college. (If the civilian economy does not improve in the next four years, there should be more than enough young people to fill enlistment requirements.)
Even those who do not enlist would be in better physical condition as a result of the boot camps, which is highly desirable anyway in view of the current physical state of many young adults today.
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