All Eyes on Wisconsin!

Wisconsin voters will have a crucial voice in the selection of the nominees for President this Tuesday, February 19. Let's make it count!

Democrats: Obama More Impressive
Barack Obama, raised in a broken home, made his own way to Harvard Law School, the Illinois State Senate, and the US Senate. His charisma on the campaign trail rivals that of John Kennedy and Bill Clinton.
While Obama got where he is in spite of his last name (1), Hillary Clinton got where she is because of hers. (2) The daughter of a privileged two-parent family, her ticket to political prominence was marriage to a young man who would (with her considerable help) become Governor of Arkansas and President of the United States. The Democratic nomination for US Senator was virtually handed to her by retiring Senator Daniel P Moynihan of New York, where she had never previously lived.
Fearless Forecast: Obama will sweep the 1st, 2nd and 4th congressional districts and garner about half the vote in the other five, giving him Wisconsin and probably the nomination. If nominated, he may appeal to both women and Jewish voters by choosing Senator Diane Feinstein (3) of California as his running-mate.

Republicans: McCain an Easy Choice
As noted in our January 8 Glazerbeam, John McCain is the most qualified candidate of either party to lead America in the age of Islamic terrorism. His plan to establish permanent American military bases in Iraq is likely the best hope of maintaining stability in the Middle East, especially in view of Iranian ambitions. He has shown remarkable willingness to work with Democrats, who will probably dominate the Congress.
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee has surprised most pundits by outlasting better known and better funded Republicans, such as Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney. Yet Huckabee is a deeply flawed candidate for two reasons: his zeal to Christianize America and his hare-brained scheme to replace the income tax with a sales tax. (4)
Texas Representative Ron Paul is still in contention, like the cartoon Road Runner who runs off a cliff and doesn't fall until he looks down. His outlandish views have been thoroughly repudiated in every primary and caucus so far, but he seems to have a hard core of 5-10% of Republican voters sticking with him.
Fearless Forecast: McCain will trounce Huckabee in Wisconsin and go on to win the nomination. Mitt Romney would be a logical choice for Vice President.
Ron Paul will probably run for President on the Libertarian (or other third-party) ticket, emphasizing opposition to illegal immigration. If he does so, he will draw enough votes away from McCain to sink the Republicans. Ross Perot sank the first President Bush this way in 1992, and Ralph Nader did the same to Al Gore in 2000. Third parties don't win, but they do count.
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(1) Obama doen't even use his middle-name, Hussein, perhaps because it reminds people of Sadam.

(2)Even her husband was not born with the name "Clinton". Born William Jefferson Blythe (after his deceased father), he took on the surname of his step-father Roger Clinton.

(3) Senator Feinstein converted to Conservative Judaism when she got married. She considers herself Jewish, but orthodox Jews would not.

(4) See the December 17, 2007, Glazerbeam entitled "New Tax, Anyone?"

A New Tax, Anyone?

"Read my lips: No new taxes!"
Vice President George Bush, 1988

Unlike the senior Bush, ex-Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas wants a new national sales tax, called the "Fair Tax", to replace the federal income and Social Security Tax. Since Huckabee has become a serious candidate for the Republican presidential nomination (1), his plan deserves consideration. The idea has also been endorsed by fellow GOP candidates Fred Thompson and John McCain, and Democrat Mike Gravel.

Q. How would the Fair Tax work?
All new goods and all services would be taxed at 23% of their total price, including tax. For example, if an item sells for $100 now, the tax would be $30 = .23($100+30). This would be equivalent to a 30% tax based on the pre-tax price.
However, every family would receive a "prebate" from the Government equal to 23% of the poverty-level income for a family of that size. This would be paid every month. Considering the prebate, the poor would pay no tax at all.

Q. Would this tax bring in enough to pay for the federal budget plus Social Security and Medicare?
Since the federal government spends about 22% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), you might think so. However, there would be a tremendous incentive to buy new goods in Canada, Mexico and other countries to legally avoid the tax. In addition, "black markets" would sprout all over America in which the tax would not be charged. My guess is that actual collected taxes would be far below present revenues.

Q. How would the change in taxes affect the economy?
The good news is that foreign corporations would flock to set up headquarters in the US, since there would be no income tax here. Without an income tax, American corporations could afford to pay bigger dividends to investors.
The bad news is that retail businesses located near the Canadian border (such as in Detroit, St Paul, Seattle, or Buffalo) or the Mexican border (such as in southern California, southern Texas, or Arizona) would lose so much trade that many would close.
For example,the tax on a new $30,000 car would be about $9,000, so not many new cars would be sold in the US. But if someone would buy a new car in Toronto and drive it here, it could be sold here as a used car, tax-free!
Anything that could be purchased through mail-order from foreign firms would be bought that way, thus cutting out American-based dealers. Also, the home-building industry would be devastated since the tax would only be charged on new homes, not re-sold homes.

Q. Could we then eliminate the IRS and save millions?
The cost of enforcing the sales tax and processing the "prebate" checks every month would be big too, maybe as big as the cost of the IRS now.

Q. Who would benefit the most from the switch to a sales tax?
The rich. According to the US Department of Labor, families with incomes of at least $150,000 per year spend only about half their post-tax income on living expenses and invest the rest. Under the new plan, their tax rate would drop to no more than 11.5% of income, instead of about 40% today.

Q. Who would lose the most through the switch?
Most families with an income of $70,000 or less would pay more, although the very poor would still pay nothing (after the "prebate.")
Retired people, who now pay little or no income tax (2) and no Social Security Tax, would pay much more than they do now. The net effect of the change would be to shift the burden of taxation from the affluent to the working class and lower-middle class.
If that does not appeal to you, you are not thinking like a Republican!

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(1) Huckabee started soaring in the polls after the appearance of a Huckabee campaign song (to the tune of 1958 summer hit "Hushabye") in the September 9 Glazerbeam.
As Josef Stalin once said, "There are no coincidences!"

(2) Social Security benefits are not taxed unless the recipient has other household income of at least $30,000. There is no Social Security Tax on these benefits, pensions or investment income.

Music to Republican Ears

As promised, here are some campaign songs for candidates for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination, so sing along!

1. Tune of "The Illini Fight Song"

We're loyal to you, John McCain!
We're true navy blue, John McCain!
We all understand
That when you take a stand
You're the best in the land, John McCain!

2. Tune of "Hushabye" by the Elegants (1)

Huckabee, Huckabee
He's the candidate for me!
He can lead the GOP
Down the path to victory!
Oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh----
Huck, Huck, Huckabee!

Huckabee is my man,
If he can't win,
Then no one can,
Against the Left he will fight
'Cause in your heart, you knows he's Right!

3. Tune of "Ballad of the Green Berets"

A Senator from Tennessee
Star of movies and TV,
A Law & Order man is he
When he plays one on TV!

So make Fred Thompson President!
Follow Reagan's precedent!
And when he leaves the White House scene
He will return to the silver screen!

4. Tune of "Rudolph, the Red-Nose Reindeer"

Rudolph, New York's ex-mayor,
Wants to be your candidate,
And if you didn't know him,
You might even think he's great.

But Rudolph, New York's ex-mayor
Had a very messed-up life,
And if you don't believe it,
Go and ask his second wife!

5. Tune of "My Bonny Lies Over the Ocean"

I'm voting for Governor Romney
And hope that you're also for Mitt,
But if you like someone else better,
Then I think that you're full of sh-
allow thinking!
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(1) You don't know it? "Hushabye" was only among the top ten tunes in America in the Summer of '58 . Where in blazes have you been?