Republican Repartee

Ten middle-aged white men seeking the 2008 Republican nomination for President fielded questions at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California, on the evening of May 3. The contenders were Ex-Mayor Rudolph Giuliani (NY), Senators John McCain (AZ) and Sam Brownback (KS), Ex-Governors Tommy Thompson (WI), Mitt Romney (MA), Jim Gilmore (VA) and Mike Huckabee (AR), and Representatives Tom Tancredo (CO). Ron Paul (TX), and Duncan Hunter (CA).

Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, Ex-Senator Fred Thompson (TN), and Senator Chuck Hagel (NE) are also considering entering the GOP Presidential race.

The moderator, Chris Matthews of "Hardball", asked some remarkably asinine questions, including:
"Would you hire Karl Rove?" ("Yes, to sweep my basement")
"Would you pardon Scooter Libby?" ("Sure, in the first paragraph of my resignation letter.")
"Would you like to see Bill Clinton live in the White House again?"
("Yes, that is why I pray Hillary beats me in November!")

Despite the usual equivocations and inanities, there were some real differences expressed:

I. Middle East
Ron Paul, who had voted against the Iraq War, demanded a return to a humble, non-interventionist foreign policy. He also blamed the War for erosion of some of our constitutional rights over the past several years.
On the other extreme, McCain insisted that we must stay and fight in Iraq. Although he admitted that the War had been mismanaged so far, he was optimistic about ultimate victory. McCain angrily denounced Congressional Democrats for passing a timetable for withdrawal.
Thompson and Brownback called for division of Iraq into three or more autonomous regions, a plan previously endorsed by Democratic Senator Joe Biden (DE). All other candidates were supportive of the War, but some hoped for an honorable withdrawal sometime soon.
Jim Gilmore advocated a stronger US effort to settle the Israel-Palestinian dispute.
McCain also denounced Iran as a major threat, and insisted that Iran be prevented from developing nuclear weapons and giving them to terrorists. Tancredo would help Israel attack Iran, if Israel asked for US assistance.

II. Religious Issues
Giuliani was the only candidate to defend the right of a pregnant woman to choose abortion at any stage of gestation, and was joined only by McCain in supporting federal funding for embryonic stem-cell research.
Romney admitted he was pro-choice when he ran for Governor of Massachusetts, but switched to pro-life two years ago. Romney, a Mormon, also decried the decline in traditional family values, noting that about a third of American babies are born to unwed mothers.
All other candidates opposed both abortion and embryonic stem-cell use.
Thompson was asked if an employer should be able to fire a worker for being "gay" (homosexual). He said "yes", even though such discrimination would violate Wisconsin law.
Huckabee and Brownback admitted that their religious beliefs would affect their policies as President.

III. Immigration
Tancredo and Hunter demanded an end to illegal immigration, supported the fence along the Mexican border, and opposed any form of amnesty for illegal aliens. Only McCain supported amnesty, as part of an immigration-reform bill. Giuliani supported a "tamper-proof" national ID card for legal aliens, but not for citizens.

IV. Taxes and Spending
All of the candidates want to cut taxes, especially the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT), but only Paul and Huckabee would eliminate the IRS altogether. Giuliani would eliminate the "death" (inheritance) tax, and Romney would abolish taxes on investment income for the middle class. McCain suggested cutting military cost-overruns, and Thompson and Giuliani boasted that they had cut welfare costs.

The "Horse Race"

Now, how does the debate affect the chances of the candidates?

Mitt Romney, like John F Kennedy in 1960, is a tall, handsome, rich and articulate second-generation politician from Massachusetts. Like Kennedy, he belongs to a minority religion. The troubles are than Mormons are nowhere near as numerous as Catholics, and they are considered heretics by many other Christians (1). Romney's switch on abortion is also suspected of being driven by politics, and may even vanish after Romney gets the Republican nomination. Still, his performance at the forum showed that he is probably the most electable Republican candidate.

John McCain, widely admired for his courage, is weighed down by his support of the Iraq War. He may be right that the War is winnable, but winning would require a vast increase in American troops, more casualties, and more cost. A draft might be even be necessary to field an army big enough to control Iraq. The American people do not consider Iraq worth the sacrifices that would be necessary to win, and so McCain will no doubt lose his last real chance to become President.

Rudolph Giuliani tried to link himself to the late President Reagan by invoking his name many times. But he lacks Reagan's charisma, and his pro-choice stance (coupled with his messy personal history) will make him unacceptable to the GOP's fundamentalist/evangelical base. I was just waiting for someone to say , "Rudy, you're no Ronald Reagan!" His lead in the polls will vanish when religious conservatives unite behind a single candidate.

Ron Paul's isolationism is shared by millions of Americans, but none of them are Republicans, so his cause is doomed. The opposition to illegal immigration touted by Tancredo and Hunter are actually very popular with Republicans, but very few people will vote for President on that basis. All three congressmen are virtually unknown, and none of them have the money to overcome that.

The rest of the candidates (Thompson, Huckabee, Gilmore, and Brownback) all showed themselves to be competent and serious contenders for the support of the white, conservative, mainstream-Christian base of the Republican Party. None are as well-known as Giuliani and McCain, and none are as rich or impressive as Romney. Morevoer, none of them are from a big state. There is no reason to believe than any one of these four candidates can emerge from the second-tier .

My guess is that two or three of the prospective candidates (Fred Thompson, Gingrich, Hagel) will enter the race by Fall. Of these, Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich are well-known nationally, and will vault to the top tier of contenders quickly.

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(1) Mormons believe that Joseph Smith (1805-1844) received a prophecy as great as that of the entire Bible. He taught that those who embraced his new faith would become "gods".