The Great Iranian Hope
Former President of Iran Seyed Mohammad Khatami, who led the Islamic Republic from 1997 through early 2005, has declared his candidacy for a third term in that position in the June, 2009, election. He will face incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (1) in a political battle that could determine the fate of the Middle East.
During his eight years in the presidency, Khatami strove to liberalize the Iranian regime while proposing dialogue with the United States and other western democracies. He suggested abolition of nuclear and chemical weapons, negotiations over Iran's nuclear program, and supported the "two-state solution" to the Arab-Israeli conflict. Israeli President Moshe Katsav, who was born in Iran, tried to converse with Khatami in Farsi at an international conference, but Khatami denied shaking hands or responding to Katsav.
Khatami's efforts at reform were thwarted at every point by the Guardian Council, the real power in Iran. In the struggle between hardline Islamists and those seeking modernization and reform of Iran, the former seemed to hold all the cards that counted: The Guardian Council, the Revolutionary Guards, and control of the military.
Viewed from a western perspective, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been an unmitigated disaster for Iran. His confrontational attitude toward the US, the UN and the EU over nuclear inspection has resulted in trade sanctions that have made life in Iran much worse for most people. His hyperbolic threats to destroy Israel have brought Iran to the brink of war. Even neighboring Arab states have privately expressed fear of Iran. (2)
However, for those Iranians imbued with the spirit of jihad and shahida (martyrdom), Ahmadinejad is just right. For them, he is the champion of Shia Islam and the arch-enemy of Israel and western civilization. He arms Hamas and Hezbollah, so that they can conduct a proxy war against the Jewish state. Although the President denies that his government is working on nuclear weapons, he defies the world by continuing the enrichment of uranium, which could be used for making them . (3) Under his leadership, Iran has sent a satellite into orbit. Those who admire his boldness and pride may not be a majority of Iranians, but they are a powerful sector of the electorate.
Even if Khatami wins the 2009 election, he will again be faced with the overweening power of the Guardian Council and its control of the security forces. But at least Ahmadinejad will be gone, and the government ministries will be returned to the hands of moderates and technocrats. UN inspectors will be re-admitted to all of Iran's nuclear facilities, so that the potential of enriching uranium to weapons-grade levels will be eliminated. If so, international sanctions against Iran will be lifted, and diplomatic relations with the United States will be restored. If Khatami cuts off arms to Hamas and Hezbollah (which I believe he would, although he has not publicly promised to do so), the threat of war in the Middle East would be drastically reduced.
If I could vote in the Iranian presidential election, I would cast my ballot for Seyed Mohammad Khatami. The last presidential candidate endorsed by the Glazerbeam won, but this blog appears only in English, so it may have less clout in Iran .
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(1) The name, which means "of the race of Ahmed (Mohammad)" was invented by the President's father.
(2) It was reported that some Arab governments offered Israel the use of their airspace for an air-raid on Iran's nuclear facilities.
(3) Uranium must be enriched to at least 80% U-235 for making an atomic bomb, while 20% U-235 is adequate for generating electricity. ( Nearly all uranium mined is U-238, which means that each atom contains a total of 238 protons and neutrons. The lighter isotope, which has 3 fewer neutrons, is far more radioactive.)
During his eight years in the presidency, Khatami strove to liberalize the Iranian regime while proposing dialogue with the United States and other western democracies. He suggested abolition of nuclear and chemical weapons, negotiations over Iran's nuclear program, and supported the "two-state solution" to the Arab-Israeli conflict. Israeli President Moshe Katsav, who was born in Iran, tried to converse with Khatami in Farsi at an international conference, but Khatami denied shaking hands or responding to Katsav.
Khatami's efforts at reform were thwarted at every point by the Guardian Council, the real power in Iran. In the struggle between hardline Islamists and those seeking modernization and reform of Iran, the former seemed to hold all the cards that counted: The Guardian Council, the Revolutionary Guards, and control of the military.
Viewed from a western perspective, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been an unmitigated disaster for Iran. His confrontational attitude toward the US, the UN and the EU over nuclear inspection has resulted in trade sanctions that have made life in Iran much worse for most people. His hyperbolic threats to destroy Israel have brought Iran to the brink of war. Even neighboring Arab states have privately expressed fear of Iran. (2)
However, for those Iranians imbued with the spirit of jihad and shahida (martyrdom), Ahmadinejad is just right. For them, he is the champion of Shia Islam and the arch-enemy of Israel and western civilization. He arms Hamas and Hezbollah, so that they can conduct a proxy war against the Jewish state. Although the President denies that his government is working on nuclear weapons, he defies the world by continuing the enrichment of uranium, which could be used for making them . (3) Under his leadership, Iran has sent a satellite into orbit. Those who admire his boldness and pride may not be a majority of Iranians, but they are a powerful sector of the electorate.
Even if Khatami wins the 2009 election, he will again be faced with the overweening power of the Guardian Council and its control of the security forces. But at least Ahmadinejad will be gone, and the government ministries will be returned to the hands of moderates and technocrats. UN inspectors will be re-admitted to all of Iran's nuclear facilities, so that the potential of enriching uranium to weapons-grade levels will be eliminated. If so, international sanctions against Iran will be lifted, and diplomatic relations with the United States will be restored. If Khatami cuts off arms to Hamas and Hezbollah (which I believe he would, although he has not publicly promised to do so), the threat of war in the Middle East would be drastically reduced.
If I could vote in the Iranian presidential election, I would cast my ballot for Seyed Mohammad Khatami. The last presidential candidate endorsed by the Glazerbeam won, but this blog appears only in English, so it may have less clout in Iran .
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(1) The name, which means "of the race of Ahmed (Mohammad)" was invented by the President's father.
(2) It was reported that some Arab governments offered Israel the use of their airspace for an air-raid on Iran's nuclear facilities.
(3) Uranium must be enriched to at least 80% U-235 for making an atomic bomb, while 20% U-235 is adequate for generating electricity. ( Nearly all uranium mined is U-238, which means that each atom contains a total of 238 protons and neutrons. The lighter isotope, which has 3 fewer neutrons, is far more radioactive.)
Labels: Ahmadinejad, Iran, Khatami
posted by Gerald S Glazer at 10:04 AM
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