How Long Will Israel Be Jewish?
"Israel's Jewish population is growing at 1.8%,...the growth rate for Arab Muslims (in Israel) is 2.6%"
Central Bureau of Statistics of Israel, Sept. 12, 2007
Right now Jews comprise about 75.8% of Israel's 7.2 million people, while about 20% are Arabs, and the rest are other ethnic groups. If present trends continue, in 2157 Jews will be less than half of the population of Israel. If the State is still a democracy by that time, the non-Jewish majority will be able to eliminate the Jewish nature of the country and repeal the Law of Return. Without a shot being fired or bomb detonated, Israel as we know it will no longer exist.
But will these growth rates really continue into the future? Not likely.
First, at current growth rates, in 150 years the Jewish population would be 14.5 times what it is now, or about 79 million people. (1) The non-Jewish population would grow by a factor of 47 to nearly 82 million, for a total population of about 161 million people, more than half the current US population in a country about the size of New Jersey. Given the shortage of drinkable water for the current population, this kind of growth is hard to believe. The current population growth rates are simply not sustainable over the long run. Enlarging the borders of Israel, as in 1967, would add Arab residents and hasten the day when Jews become a minority.
Here are two other factors that could keep Israel Jewish:
1. The orthodox birthrate
The average orthodox Jewish woman in Israel gives birth to seven children during her lifetime, compared to 4 or 5 per Muslim woman (down from 9 fifty years ago) and only 2 per non-religious Israeli woman (2). Although today the orthodox are less than 15 percent of Israeli Jews, within one generation the number of orthodox Jews should increase by a factor of 3.5, while the secular Jewish population would remain about the same size. If the kiruv (outreach) efforts of Israel's orthodox community are successful, the orthodox population will grow even faster.
2. Jewish immigration
The inflow of Jews from the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe has tapered off over the past ten years. However, there is a real prospect of Jewish immigration to Israel from South Africa, South America and Western Europe, especially France. This immigration may be driven by increased anti-Semitism and political instability.
If Israel's high-tech economy continues to grow, and the country enjoys a modicum of peace, Jews will want to live there.
3. Border Adjustments
The Government of Israel will soon undertake negotiations with the Palestine Authority over the future border between Israel and Palestine. Do not be surprised if Olmert offers to trade some land with a majority Arab population for land in the West Bank containing Jewish setttlements. There will be massive resistance in Israel against giving away any part of the present State, and Israeli Arabs may protest against being transferred into Palestine against their will. But it could still happen, and the result would be a smaller Arab population in Israel.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------(1) This is because the growth factor for Jews would be (1.018) to the power 150 which equals about 14.53 and that for others would be (1.026)to the same power, which is about 47.
(2) Fertility in Israel, by Dov Friedlander.
Central Bureau of Statistics of Israel, Sept. 12, 2007
Right now Jews comprise about 75.8% of Israel's 7.2 million people, while about 20% are Arabs, and the rest are other ethnic groups. If present trends continue, in 2157 Jews will be less than half of the population of Israel. If the State is still a democracy by that time, the non-Jewish majority will be able to eliminate the Jewish nature of the country and repeal the Law of Return. Without a shot being fired or bomb detonated, Israel as we know it will no longer exist.
But will these growth rates really continue into the future? Not likely.
First, at current growth rates, in 150 years the Jewish population would be 14.5 times what it is now, or about 79 million people. (1) The non-Jewish population would grow by a factor of 47 to nearly 82 million, for a total population of about 161 million people, more than half the current US population in a country about the size of New Jersey. Given the shortage of drinkable water for the current population, this kind of growth is hard to believe. The current population growth rates are simply not sustainable over the long run. Enlarging the borders of Israel, as in 1967, would add Arab residents and hasten the day when Jews become a minority.
Here are two other factors that could keep Israel Jewish:
1. The orthodox birthrate
The average orthodox Jewish woman in Israel gives birth to seven children during her lifetime, compared to 4 or 5 per Muslim woman (down from 9 fifty years ago) and only 2 per non-religious Israeli woman (2). Although today the orthodox are less than 15 percent of Israeli Jews, within one generation the number of orthodox Jews should increase by a factor of 3.5, while the secular Jewish population would remain about the same size. If the kiruv (outreach) efforts of Israel's orthodox community are successful, the orthodox population will grow even faster.
2. Jewish immigration
The inflow of Jews from the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe has tapered off over the past ten years. However, there is a real prospect of Jewish immigration to Israel from South Africa, South America and Western Europe, especially France. This immigration may be driven by increased anti-Semitism and political instability.
If Israel's high-tech economy continues to grow, and the country enjoys a modicum of peace, Jews will want to live there.
3. Border Adjustments
The Government of Israel will soon undertake negotiations with the Palestine Authority over the future border between Israel and Palestine. Do not be surprised if Olmert offers to trade some land with a majority Arab population for land in the West Bank containing Jewish setttlements. There will be massive resistance in Israel against giving away any part of the present State, and Israeli Arabs may protest against being transferred into Palestine against their will. But it could still happen, and the result would be a smaller Arab population in Israel.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------(1) This is because the growth factor for Jews would be (1.018) to the power 150 which equals about 14.53 and that for others would be (1.026)to the same power, which is about 47.
(2) Fertility in Israel, by Dov Friedlander.
posted by Gerald S Glazer at 10:10 AM
1 Comments:
Mr Glazer has not given the exact references for his data so it is difficult to assess its validity. I was able to find the original data of Friedlander and it is based on an article published in 1993 (Population Studies 47: 295-306, 1993). I could not find the orginal source of the other data from the Census Bureau of Israel so I do not know exactly when that data was obtained. The problem with Friedlander's statistics is that they are based on false assumptions and they are 14 years out of date. More recent analysis (2005) of this issue has been done by Bennett Zimmerman and Yoram Ettinger and their data is listed on www.PAdemographics.com.
In an article Caroline Glick summarized the results of their study:
"AT THE Herzliya Conference on Tuesday morning, the team's chief researcher, Bennett Zimmerman, presented its newest findings. Over the past several months, the team has analyzed Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics population forecasts for Israel and Judea and Samaria for 2025. In its new report, the team found that the ICBS ignored the fact that over the past several years, fertility rates among Israeli Jews have been rising and that fertility rates among Arabs in Israel, Judea and Samaria have been decreasing. That is, the ICSB's data do not reflect current population trends.
The team reconfigured the projections for growth among Israeli Jews and Arabs in Israel, Judea and Samaria, based on current rates, and found that most likely, in 2025, inside Israel, Jews will comprise 77 percent of the population (as opposed to 81 percent today); and taken together with Judea and Samaria, Jews will comprise 63 percent of the population as opposed to 67 percent today.
That is, while demography may well be an issue of concern, it will be more than a generation before it produces significant change, if ever. It is questionable whether a set of circumstances will ever exist where Israel would be advised to transfer territory to its terrorist enemies; certainly there is no reason to rush and do so in the face of a demographic "time bomb" whose fuse is so long-burning.
What the actual population data show clearly is that Israel's Jewish majority is secure for at least another generation, and probably well beyond that."
So we have three different statistics by three different groups at three different times. It seems to me that drawing firm conclusions from this is not warranted. Therefore, the so-called Jewish time bomb may be more hype than fact.
Moreover, I think that Olmert's current policy of giving up territory for a promise by Arabs who have never kept a promise when 1/2 of the Arabs are ruled by terrorists in Gaza, is far more dangerous and immediate than a disputed demographics issue. If Olmert's concessions are realized it is highly doubtful that Israel will be around long enough to suffer a demographic problem. Even the Israelis recognize this as in a recent poll the majority do not think there will be an Israel to celebrate its 100th anniversary.
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