The Brink of Collapse
"In Thursday's (March 16) meeting of the Fatah Central Commitee, member Tayed Abdel Rahim ...demanded that Abbas resign and disolve the Palestinian Authority (PA)." (1)
Considering the enormous problems facing him, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas (also known as Abu Mazen) may be tempted to take this advice and "throw in the towel."
Power Struggle Looms
The Islamic fanatic party Hamas, which won a majority in the January 25 Parliamentary election, has submitted a slate of ministers for a new government for Abbas' approval. Most of the proposed officials are Hamas hard-liners. The key issue is control of the Palestine Police and other security services, which now report to Abbas. When a new government takes office, will these services, staffed by Fatah-men, come under the power of Hamas? Will the Hamas military wing be folded into the security services?
Although Abbas is a conciliator by nature, it is not clear that his armed followers will accept Hamas leadership. Things could become ugly fast.
If Abbas loses control of these forces, he will be reduced to a ceremonial head-of-state like Queen Elizabeth II.
Bankruptcy
Despite massive aid from the US and Europe plus import taxes collected by Israel, the PA has run a deficit every month. Since the Hamas victory, Israel has withheld the tax money and the US and European Union have threatened to cut off aid unless Hamas changes its policies. Since the PA must have a FICO Score (2) of about zero, the Authority will not be able to borrow from world financial markets; before long, Abbas will not be able meet the payroll for his security services.
Will unpaid Palestinian soldiers turn their guns in at their bases and go home to look for jobs that do not exist? Or will they turn to robbery, kidnapping and extortion to survive? My guess is that most will choose the latter option, which will bring them into conflict with each other and armed civilians. The PA territory, notorious for lawlessness in the best of times, will spiral down into chaos if the security services turn into armed gangs.
Will Iran fund the Palestinian Authority?
Iran, awash with oil money, and under fanatic Muslim control, will be pleased to fund a Hamas-dominated PA. Acceptance of Iranian money will also strengthen the hands of Hamas at the expense of Abbas and his Fatah supporters, since the latter cannot match Hamas in Islamic zeal.
Abbas may be able to avert the financial disaster facing the PA by turning to Iran, but the price that Iran will demand for its aid could be devastating: a free hand for Hezbollah (3) to operate in the Palestinian territory. Through Hezbollah, Iran can wage a proxy war against Israel with impunity. Although both Israelis and Palestinians would suffer, President Ahmadinejad could cheer his Muslim brethren from Tehran. It is even possible that Iran would seek military bases in the PA territory, but Israel would not permit them to be established.
Averting Disaster
None of these Doomsday scenarios are inevitable. It is not too late for Hamas to realize that prosperity is possible only through peace and stability. This means abandoning the jihadist rhetoric about destroying Israel (which they can't do anyway, thank G-d!) and terrorism. Instead, Palestinians must seek peaceful resolution of disputes, both among themselves and between Arabs and Israelis.
No one will invest in a war-zone, so peace and security must be firmly established before efforts to build the economy can be successful. With a durable peace, it may be possible to lure European manufacturing firms to establish labor-intensive industries in the PA territory that will provide jobs.
If only more Palestinians would read the Glazerbeam!
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(1) Quoted in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, March 19, 2006, page 4A.
(2) The score used by American lenders to determine the credit-worthiness of loan applicants. Any score over 700 is considered satisfactory.
(3) Hezbollah ("The Party of Allah") is a terrorist group and political party in Lebanon supported and armed by Iran. They are camped just north of the Israel-Lebanon border, and often fire rockets into Israel. Hezbollah is also widely blamed for destroying the Jewish Center of Buenos Aires, Argentina, in 1983.
Considering the enormous problems facing him, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas (also known as Abu Mazen) may be tempted to take this advice and "throw in the towel."
Power Struggle Looms
The Islamic fanatic party Hamas, which won a majority in the January 25 Parliamentary election, has submitted a slate of ministers for a new government for Abbas' approval. Most of the proposed officials are Hamas hard-liners. The key issue is control of the Palestine Police and other security services, which now report to Abbas. When a new government takes office, will these services, staffed by Fatah-men, come under the power of Hamas? Will the Hamas military wing be folded into the security services?
Although Abbas is a conciliator by nature, it is not clear that his armed followers will accept Hamas leadership. Things could become ugly fast.
If Abbas loses control of these forces, he will be reduced to a ceremonial head-of-state like Queen Elizabeth II.
Bankruptcy
Despite massive aid from the US and Europe plus import taxes collected by Israel, the PA has run a deficit every month. Since the Hamas victory, Israel has withheld the tax money and the US and European Union have threatened to cut off aid unless Hamas changes its policies. Since the PA must have a FICO Score (2) of about zero, the Authority will not be able to borrow from world financial markets; before long, Abbas will not be able meet the payroll for his security services.
Will unpaid Palestinian soldiers turn their guns in at their bases and go home to look for jobs that do not exist? Or will they turn to robbery, kidnapping and extortion to survive? My guess is that most will choose the latter option, which will bring them into conflict with each other and armed civilians. The PA territory, notorious for lawlessness in the best of times, will spiral down into chaos if the security services turn into armed gangs.
Will Iran fund the Palestinian Authority?
Iran, awash with oil money, and under fanatic Muslim control, will be pleased to fund a Hamas-dominated PA. Acceptance of Iranian money will also strengthen the hands of Hamas at the expense of Abbas and his Fatah supporters, since the latter cannot match Hamas in Islamic zeal.
Abbas may be able to avert the financial disaster facing the PA by turning to Iran, but the price that Iran will demand for its aid could be devastating: a free hand for Hezbollah (3) to operate in the Palestinian territory. Through Hezbollah, Iran can wage a proxy war against Israel with impunity. Although both Israelis and Palestinians would suffer, President Ahmadinejad could cheer his Muslim brethren from Tehran. It is even possible that Iran would seek military bases in the PA territory, but Israel would not permit them to be established.
Averting Disaster
None of these Doomsday scenarios are inevitable. It is not too late for Hamas to realize that prosperity is possible only through peace and stability. This means abandoning the jihadist rhetoric about destroying Israel (which they can't do anyway, thank G-d!) and terrorism. Instead, Palestinians must seek peaceful resolution of disputes, both among themselves and between Arabs and Israelis.
No one will invest in a war-zone, so peace and security must be firmly established before efforts to build the economy can be successful. With a durable peace, it may be possible to lure European manufacturing firms to establish labor-intensive industries in the PA territory that will provide jobs.
If only more Palestinians would read the Glazerbeam!
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
(1) Quoted in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, March 19, 2006, page 4A.
(2) The score used by American lenders to determine the credit-worthiness of loan applicants. Any score over 700 is considered satisfactory.
(3) Hezbollah ("The Party of Allah") is a terrorist group and political party in Lebanon supported and armed by Iran. They are camped just north of the Israel-Lebanon border, and often fire rockets into Israel. Hezbollah is also widely blamed for destroying the Jewish Center of Buenos Aires, Argentina, in 1983.
posted by Gerald S Glazer at 10:09 AM
1 Comments:
Looks like part of what you predict is happening right now.
Palestinian Gunmen Clash With Police
Mar 20, 7:17 AM (ET)
By IBRAHIM BARZAK
(AP) Palestinian police officers, one injured, run and take cover during a gunbattle with Palestinian...
Full Image
GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip (AP) - Palestinian gunmen from the ousted Fatah Party stormed government buildings, briefly took over a power plant and blocked a vital road in the Gaza Strip on Monday, injecting more chaos into the volatile area as Hamas militants readied to take power.
Nine people were wounded in five separate firefights with Palestinian police. The violence was a foretaste of what might happen if Hamas tried to impose its will on Fatah gunmen.
Bad blood runs deep between Hamas and Fatah, and many Fatah activists - including nearly 60,000 members of the security forces - fear for their government jobs once the militants take power. The handover drew nearer on Sunday, when Hamas, which won January parliamentary elections, presented its new Cabinet to Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas for approval.
The bloodiest of the five confrontations Monday took place at Gaza's government compound. Three dozen gunmen demanding jobs charged toward the complex, firing in the air. Some burst into the Finance Ministry, while others began firing at random, wounding a doorman outside the adjacent Foreign Ministry before Palestinian police pulled up in jeeps and began exchanging fire with the attackers.
An Associated Press reporter was in the Foreign Ministry at the time of the attack. Just yards away from him, two stray bullets hit a security guard in the legs. Other ministry employees ran for cover, pressing close to walls or hiding under tables as bullets smashed windows.
Police eventually stormed the ministry, arresting three gunmen from the Fatah-affiliated Al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades. In total, two gunmen and two security officials were wounded in the firefight.
Dozens of gunmen also exchanged fire with members of the security forces at Palestinian police headquarters.
Earlier in the day, gunmen blocked a road leading to the main Israel-Gaza crossing point, briefly took over Gaza's power plant and entered a military hospital.
About 35 gunmen traded fire with policemen who tried to remove them from the road leading to the Erez crossing point, which Abbas had been scheduled to use Monday morning to leave Gaza for the West Bank. Two gunmen and a policeman were wounded.
Two dozen gunmen also briefly infiltrated Gaza's power plant elsewhere in Gaza, exchanging fire with police and wounding two, officials said.
No one was hurt at the military hospital near the town of Khan Younis.
Hamas' designated foreign minister, Mahmoud Zahar, blamed the violence on Fatah mismanagement.
"We are going to deal with it by the proper means in order to solve these problems," Zahar said.
The gunbattles on Monday were the most intense in months, and came a day after Hamas' designated prime minister, Ismail Haniyeh, handed Abbas a proposed 24-member Cabinet dominated by Hamas activists.
Hamas' failure to bring Fatah or other more moderate Palestinian lawmakers into the government was likely to set off painful Western aid cutbacks. The main bone of contention was Hamas' refusal to compromise on its right to violent resistance against Israel and its rejection of the Jewish state's legitimacy.
Abbas is not expected to submit the list to parliament for approval before Israel's March 28 elections.
Abbas, who favors negotiating a final peace settlement with Israel, has urged Hamas to moderate its violent ideology but likely will approve the Cabinet, his aides say. He will, however, warn Hamas that its refusal to soften positions that could hurt the Palestinians' international standing.
Hamas' refusal to moderate its anti-Israel stance has led acting Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to formulate a sweeping plan of West Bank territorial pullbacks that he plans to carry out with or without negotiations.
On Monday, Olmert reiterated that he would change Israel's borders significantly after next week's voting, which his Kadima Party is expected to win.
The borders with the West Bank "will be appreciably different from today's borders," Olmert told Israel Army Radio.
Olmert said he had not mapped out specific lines. But restating a position he articulated earlier in the month, he said Israel would hold on to its three major settlement blocs, where most of the 253,000 Jewish settlers live.
He also reiterated his plans to maintain the Jordan River Valley as a security border, and to build a controversial West Bank project between Jerusalem and the biggest settlement, Maaleh Adumim, that both the Palestinians and the U.S. have deplored.
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