Israel Veers Right

Although the centrist Kadima Party came in first in elections for the new Knesset with 28 seats, the most likely next Government will be a coalition of Likud (with 27 seats) and other rightist and religious parties. The most important result is that Yisrael Beitenu (Israel is Our Home), led by Moldovan immigrant Avigdor Leiberman, won 15 seats, ahead of both Labor (13) and Shas (10). (Labor, which governed Israel for the first 29 years of its history, is a pale shadow of its former power and glory.)

Leiberman arrived in Israel in 1978, and soon joined the Likud Party. Within a few years he was chief of staff to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. After "Bibi" fired him, he started his own party, whose name is similar to the Russian party known as Rossiya Nash Doma (Russia is Our Home). The new party, most popular among fellow immigrants from the former Soviet Union, takes a hard-line on Arabs, both inside and outside Israel. Lieberman has proposed that all voters take a loyalty oath to Israel's flag and anthem, which would discourage Israeli Arabs from voting. He has become "The New Kahane", echoing the late rabbi's warnings that Israeli Arabs threaten the Jewish character of the State of Israel.

Although known for his hawkish views on the Palestinians, his proposal to allow the Prime Minister to rule by decree during a State of Emergency is even more disturbing. Meir Kahane said that Israel cannot be both Jewish and democratic; it is clear that if Avigdor Leiberman had to choose, it would be the former.

Although Leiberman is haggling with Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni as well as with Netanyahu, it is obvious that he and his followers would be far more comfortable in a Likud-led coalition. He is no doubt using his leverage to secure the highest possible cabinet position for himself, and perhaps iron-clad guarantees that the new Government would not agree to ceding any part of Jerusalem to the Palestinians or the Golan to the Syrians.

Given this hardening of the Israeli position, the mission of former Senator George Mitchell in brokering a Middle East settlement is doomed. The touted "Two-State Solution" was a long shot anyway, but if Kadima and Labor (perhaps bolstered by Meretz) would have secured a big victory on February 10, there might have been a chance for an agreement between Israel and Abbas, though it would have left Gaza in the hands of Hamas. With Netanyahu and Leiberman calling the shots, even that seems impossible.

Of course George Mitchell (and his boss Barack Obama) know all this, but the mission will go on, if only because the US must always appear to be seeking peace in the Middle East. But can the US impose a peace-agreement on Israel that its Government does not want?

My answer is "No." If the Obama Administration were to break with Israel over a proposed settlement, the Republican Party would stand to gain enormous political support from American Jews, a key component of the Democratic majority in this country.

Even President Ronald Reagan, who did not need Jewish support at all, expended huge political capital to win the fight with the Israel Lobby over the sale of the AWACS surveillance system to Saudi Arabia in 1982. His successor, President George H W Bush, was defeated for re-election after opposing loan guarantees to Israel. Barack Obama, already viewed with suspicion by many American Zionists, will be loathe to confirm these suspicions by trying to pressure Israel into taking an unpalatable deal.

So, we already know that even if Israeli-Palestinian negotiations take place, they are sure to fail. The only question left is whether the Israelis will be able to pin the blame on the intransigence of the other side.