The View From Damascus

"Syria will join Mideast talks in Washington"
Associated Press, Nov. 26, 2007

By sending an envoy (although not a top-ranking figure) to the current peace conference in Washington and Annapolis, Syria has broken ranks with the Rejection Front of Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas. While acting as a major conduit of arms between Tehran and the latter two terrorist groups, Damascus is now pursuing a distinctly more pacific policy than they are. Why the change? Let's look at the world from Damascus:

Israel: In September Israeli jets bombed a building in Syria, said to be a North Korean nuclear reactor under construction. This attack and the low-keyed reaction from Syria point to two important facts:
1. Syria's air defenses are worthless. Israeli warplanes encountered no anti-aircraft fire or Syrian fighters while striking the target, deep in Syrian airspace.
2. Syria avoids confrontation. When Israel bombed the Iraqi reactor at Osirak in 1981, the UN Security Council condemned Israel for an act of aggression. This time, not only did Syria not retaliate, but Damascus did not even file a complaint with the UN, even though the bombing was a clear violation of the 1973 cease-fire and disengagement agreement.
Just imagine the outcry if during the ColdWar Soviet bombers would have destroyed a vacant cabin at Cedar Lake during the off-season!
Conclusions: Syria is trying to conceal whatever was destroyed by the Israelis, and is carefully avoiding a confrontation with the Jewish state.
Instead, Syria is seeking a US-brokered deal to regain the Golan Heights, lost to Israel in the 1967 Six-Day War. If offered iron-clad security guarantees, such as American troops on the Golan cease-fire line, Israel may take the deal. But can the Syrian regime survive a peace-treaty with Israel? Anwar Sadat could not.

Lebanon: Two years after Syria was forced to withdraw its army from Lebanon, the pro-Syrian President Emile LaHoud has left office. So far, no successor has been elected by the Parliament; the Syrian-backed Shiite Hezbollah militia may be making a bid for power right now. Civil war is a serious possibility. If the US or Israel intervenes, can Syria sit it out?

Iran: Although the vast majority of Syrians are Sunni Muslims, Syria is aligned with militantly Shiite Iran. Mutual hostility toward Israel is cementing the alliance----so far. But there are two flies in this ointment:
1. Religious war among Muslims: A major confrontation looms between Iran and the Sunni Arab powers----if fighting erupts between them, can Syria afford to be allied with Iran? This could pose a big problem for President Assad since he is not Sunni, but Alawi, which is closer to Shia Islam.
2. Ahmadinejad: Although the borderline crackpot President of Iran does not command its armed forces (1), his bellicose threats, coupled with uranium-enrichment activities, could provoke a war between Iran and the US or Israel, or both, which Iran would certainly lose.

United States: Syria is surrounded by countries either allied with the US (Turkey, Israel, and Jordan) or partially-occupied by US armed forces (Iraq). Despite its support for Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah, Syria has been aligned with the US against Al Qaida, especially its forces in Iraq. Given the level of mutual hostility between Tehran and Washington, Syria's role is akin to riding two horses headed in opposite directions.
The fact that Syria has chosen to attend the Washington Peace Conference against the warnings of the Rejection Front is a sign that Damascus has chosen the American horse.
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(1) All Iranian military and security forces report to Grand Ayatollah Ali Khameini, Supreme Leader of the Guardian Council.