Iran: Today's Paper Tiger
" The Paper Tiger (imperialism) has nuclear teeth!"
Nikita Khruschev, 1962
Within the past year commentators have combined Iran's efforts to enrich uranium with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's stated desire for a world without Israel into a doomsday scenario in which Iran would build an atomic bomb and drop it on the Jewish state. Some even urged that either Israel or the US bomb Iranian nuclear facilities to prevent such a catastrophe.
Thank G-d, two recent developments have made that so unlikely that Iran is now a paper tiger, without nuclear teeth.
1. Russia halts nuclear fuel shipment to Iran.
According to a Washington Post story from Moscow March 12, Russia has discontinued uranium shipments and other nuclear assistance to Iran because the Islamic Republic has defaulted on an agreement to pay $25 million per month for aid in building a nuclear power plant.
There have been reports that Iran is short of money,despite its vast oil wealth. Iran could easily afford to send millions of dollars to Hizbollah and Hamas just a few months ago.
It is possible that the Russians are using the failure to pay on time as a pretext for backing away from Russia's role as the enabler of Iran's nuclear ambitions, which are anathema to the US and Europe. Every time Moscow has offered to mediate a compromise between Tehran and the West on uranium enrichment, Iran has "blown them off" and perhaps the Russians are getting tired of the game.
2. The Arrow Missile Defense System
The US and Israel have collaborated to develop the Arrow missile defense system, which has been proven capable of shooting down offensive missiles in the air. (1) According to Brig. Gen. Danny Milo, commander of the Israeli Air Force's Anti-Aircraft Division, "The Arrow answers all of the relevant threats to the State of Israel. "
Of all the countries in the Middle East threatened by Iran's acquisition of offensive missiles, only Israel has the Arrow. It is possible that nervous Arab regimes will seek to buy the Arrow for themselves during the next few years, but they will first have to normalize relations with Israel. Paradoxically, Iran's offensive capabilities would then have the effect of pushing the Arab world into peace and trade with Israel!
If an honest Gallup Poll could be taken in Iran, I believe that Ahmadinejad's approval rating would be even lower than W's here. By any objective standard, his administration has been an unadulterated disaster for the people of Iran: international isolation, trade restrictions, and derision (2) Far worse is the prospect that a miscalculation by the the erratic leader could trigger a war with the US, Israel, or an Arab nation. Despite the missile systems acquired from Russia, Iran is highly vulnerable to an air-attack on its oil pipelines and shipping facilities, which would result in a quick collapse of its economy.
Although Ahmadinejad is the elected President of Iran, he is subject to the ultimate authority of the Guardian Council, a self-perpetuating group of elderly ayatollahs, now led by Ali Khameini. Although militant Islamists, the ayatollahs are not hot-heads like Ahmadinejad. During the Iran-Iraq War (1980-89), the Guardian Council insisted on buying arms from the US and Israel, over the opposition of then-President Abolhassan Bani-Sadr. (3) There have already been indications that the Guardians have begun to rein the jihadist President in, and I would not be surprised if they put the "kibosh" on his re-election in 2009. They must realize that if Ahmadinejad drags Iran into a disastrous war, he will take the Islamic Republic down with him.
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(1)The Near East Report, (the AIPAC newsletter), Feb. 19, 2007
(2)In Dec. 2006, Ahmadinejad hosted neo-Nazis and renegade Jews among others at his Holocaust Denial Conference in Tehran. Even the United Nations took a break from condemning Israel to pass a resolution commemorating the tragedy, as if to repudiate him.
(3) The notorious Iran-Contra Affair began with an effort by Iran to acquire American-made Improved Hawk (I-Hawk) Missiles from Israel to use against Iraq. When Israel shipped Tehran the obsolete original Hawks (as if the Iranians would never notice the difference), Iran sent them back. At this point, Col . Oliver North suggested that the US would ship the I-Hawks directly to Iran if the latter would help rescue American hostages in Beirut.
Nikita Khruschev, 1962
Within the past year commentators have combined Iran's efforts to enrich uranium with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's stated desire for a world without Israel into a doomsday scenario in which Iran would build an atomic bomb and drop it on the Jewish state. Some even urged that either Israel or the US bomb Iranian nuclear facilities to prevent such a catastrophe.
Thank G-d, two recent developments have made that so unlikely that Iran is now a paper tiger, without nuclear teeth.
1. Russia halts nuclear fuel shipment to Iran.
According to a Washington Post story from Moscow March 12, Russia has discontinued uranium shipments and other nuclear assistance to Iran because the Islamic Republic has defaulted on an agreement to pay $25 million per month for aid in building a nuclear power plant.
There have been reports that Iran is short of money,despite its vast oil wealth. Iran could easily afford to send millions of dollars to Hizbollah and Hamas just a few months ago.
It is possible that the Russians are using the failure to pay on time as a pretext for backing away from Russia's role as the enabler of Iran's nuclear ambitions, which are anathema to the US and Europe. Every time Moscow has offered to mediate a compromise between Tehran and the West on uranium enrichment, Iran has "blown them off" and perhaps the Russians are getting tired of the game.
2. The Arrow Missile Defense System
The US and Israel have collaborated to develop the Arrow missile defense system, which has been proven capable of shooting down offensive missiles in the air. (1) According to Brig. Gen. Danny Milo, commander of the Israeli Air Force's Anti-Aircraft Division, "The Arrow answers all of the relevant threats to the State of Israel. "
Of all the countries in the Middle East threatened by Iran's acquisition of offensive missiles, only Israel has the Arrow. It is possible that nervous Arab regimes will seek to buy the Arrow for themselves during the next few years, but they will first have to normalize relations with Israel. Paradoxically, Iran's offensive capabilities would then have the effect of pushing the Arab world into peace and trade with Israel!
If an honest Gallup Poll could be taken in Iran, I believe that Ahmadinejad's approval rating would be even lower than W's here. By any objective standard, his administration has been an unadulterated disaster for the people of Iran: international isolation, trade restrictions, and derision (2) Far worse is the prospect that a miscalculation by the the erratic leader could trigger a war with the US, Israel, or an Arab nation. Despite the missile systems acquired from Russia, Iran is highly vulnerable to an air-attack on its oil pipelines and shipping facilities, which would result in a quick collapse of its economy.
Although Ahmadinejad is the elected President of Iran, he is subject to the ultimate authority of the Guardian Council, a self-perpetuating group of elderly ayatollahs, now led by Ali Khameini. Although militant Islamists, the ayatollahs are not hot-heads like Ahmadinejad. During the Iran-Iraq War (1980-89), the Guardian Council insisted on buying arms from the US and Israel, over the opposition of then-President Abolhassan Bani-Sadr. (3) There have already been indications that the Guardians have begun to rein the jihadist President in, and I would not be surprised if they put the "kibosh" on his re-election in 2009. They must realize that if Ahmadinejad drags Iran into a disastrous war, he will take the Islamic Republic down with him.
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(1)The Near East Report, (the AIPAC newsletter), Feb. 19, 2007
(2)In Dec. 2006, Ahmadinejad hosted neo-Nazis and renegade Jews among others at his Holocaust Denial Conference in Tehran. Even the United Nations took a break from condemning Israel to pass a resolution commemorating the tragedy, as if to repudiate him.
(3) The notorious Iran-Contra Affair began with an effort by Iran to acquire American-made Improved Hawk (I-Hawk) Missiles from Israel to use against Iraq. When Israel shipped Tehran the obsolete original Hawks (as if the Iranians would never notice the difference), Iran sent them back. At this point, Col . Oliver North suggested that the US would ship the I-Hawks directly to Iran if the latter would help rescue American hostages in Beirut.
posted by Gerald S Glazer at 9:09 AM
1 Comments:
There are problems with both of your premises.
1. Iran accepted to receive Russian nuclear fuel in exchange for giving up producing their own nuclear fuel. Iran had announced months ago, and it was confirmed by the international nuclear regulatory agency, that Iran has begun making fissionable material.
Therefore, if Iran does not get nuclear fuel from Russia, they will make it themsleves. Actually they are probably making it already, but the pace will increase.
2. The Arrow system is indeed an excellent anti-missile missile, but is that the way the nuclear device will be delivered? Iran has a powerful ally in Hezbullah. They are so powerful that they fought Israel to s stand still last summer.
You are probbaly correct that because of the Arrow system they will not launch a nuclear equipped missile, but they can and will launch one or many Hezbullah suicide nuclear bombers on Israel.
The facts suggest that Iran may be a paper tiger in the conventional sense, but Hezbullah, Irans's anti-Israel army, has proven that Israel is very vulnerable to lower technology warfare techniques. These techniques may not be as potent as the high technology devices but in the case of a very small country like Israel, low tech can be quite devastating and powerful.
The worst sin in warfare is underestimating the enemy. The Iran president has declared that Iran wants to and will wipe Israel off of the map and Iran already has the capability to make fissionable material for a nuclear bomb.
Thank G-d Mr Glaser is not the Secretary of Defense for Israel or the USA.
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