State of Chaos

"There's simply no reason to avoid the subject of how we get to a Palestinian state..."
Sec. of State Condoleeza Rice (1)

"Hamas, Fatah fighting kills 17; two sides declare another truce" (1)

Secretary Rice, like her boss President Bush, never lets developments on the ground spoil her plans, whether for Gaza or Iraq. But Israelis, and friends of Israel around the world, should take note of what is going on in Gaza and modify their plans accordingly.

The fighting in Gaza is between forces loyal to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas (aka Abu Mazen) and those of Hamas, the "Islamofascist" movement that won last year's parliamentary elections. The political structure of the Palestine Authority (PA), in which a strong president is elected separately from the parliament, is similar to that of France. In both cases, during the term of a president another party won the office of prime minister .

In France there was no fighting: the Gaullist President and Socialist Prime Minister negotiated a number of issues and appointments and formed a stable government. They could do this because both their parties (as well as other French parties) put the interests of France as a stable democracy ahead of partisan interests.

Here is where the analogy with the Palestine Authority breaks down. Although Fatah and Hamas are both composed of Sunni Muslim Arabs with similar long-term objectives, hotheads on both sides want power so much they are more than willing to kill each other to get it. During the past year hundreds of Palestinians have been killed in the internecine slaughter, dozens of truces have been made, and all the truces have been broken. International efforts, including those by Egypt and the Arab League, to form a unity government have come to nothing.

You might think that it is better that Palestinians concentrate on killing each other rather than co-operate to kill Israelis; indeed, the Government of Israel has supported the Abbas faction with both money and permission to obtain vast quantities of arms from the US. Although "Abu Mazen" has publicly urged that the arms shipped to Fatah be used against "The Occupation" (Israel), Prime Minister Olmert seems happy to help Fatah get all the ammo they want.

The backers of the "Road Map" to the two-state solution of the Israel-Arab conflict have yet to draw the obvious conclusion from the Palestinian bloodshed: the Abbas government cannot deliver peace, even if it really wanted to. Those who make and break truces with their fellow Arab Muslims cannot be trusted to keep a permanent armistice with Israelis. If so, establishment of a Palestinian state under present conditions would be disastrous.

The Quartet (2) that backs the Road Map need not worry about the dangers that would emerge from the State of Palestine, since none of them border on it. Israel, on the other hand, already contending with rockets from Gaza and terrorists tunneling under the Security Fence, would be the target of continual attacks from the new state.

Let us hope that Israeli leaders have the courage to reject a State of Chaos on their border .

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(1) Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Feb. 3, 2007.

(2) The United States, United Nations, Russia, and the European Union.