Tuesday, March 29, 2005

Frozen Asset

The US Senate voted earlier this month to permit drilling for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), located on the northern shore of Alaska. Environmentalists oppose drilling there because it is the home of a caribou herd and many other animals. In the proposed trade-off between conservation and oil production, who is right? Who is wrong?

1. What is the size of ANWR?
About 19 million acres.

2. What kind of animals live there?
Besides caribou, there are grizzly bears,wolves, sheep, wolverines,musk oxen, foxes and swans. About 120,000 porcupine caribou go there to breed every June.(1)

3. How much of ANWR is OK'd for oil-drilling?
About 2,000 acres, or about one-hundredth of one-percent of the Refuge(2). Even if you added another thousand acres for roads and pipelines, the total land would be a minuscle percentage of ANWR.

4. Would the proposed drilling harm wildlife there?
Oil production at Prudhoe Bay (just west of ANWR) has been going on for about thirty years, and the caribou herd there is as big as ever. Other animals and the environment are doing fine.(2)

5. How much oil is in ANWR?
According to the US Geological Survey, between 5.7 and 16 billion barrels of recoverable crude oil. That is enough oil to meet all US needs for a year, maybe more.

6. If Congress and the President approve drilling, when will the oil become available?
The first barrel should be pumped out in about seven years, with maximum production in about ten years.

7. Where will ANWR oil be sold?
It is most efficient to ship oil from Alaska to our West Coast and Asia.

8. What effect will ANWR oil have on world oil prices? Will there be any effect on American Middle-East policies?
US oil production peaked in 1970, and has been declining ever since. As a result, we import over 60 percent of the oil we use, mostly from Arab countries (3). Any increase in the supply of oil on the market will have a restraining effect on world oil prices, although the ANWR supply is not big enough to prevent prices from continuing to rise.
The more domestic oil we have, the less we are dependent upon supporting and pleasing foreign oil suppliers.

9. Isn't better to concentrate on conserving energy, rather than digging up a pristine wilderness?
If we want to maintain our standard of living in the future, we should both increase the supply of oil and decrease usage through fuel efficiency and new technologies.

10. Why not synthesize fuels from coal and vegetable products?
We should, and in the future we will. Right now the cost of a barrel of synthetic oil would be about $65 (4), compared with $54 for a barrel of crude oil. As recoverable sources of crude oil diminish in the years ahead, oil prices will eventually surpass those of synthetic fuels; then we will switch to synthetic fuel. ( Meanwhile, OPEC has the power to kill the synthetic fuel industry by cutting prices. )

11. Should we switch to cars powered by electricity or other energy?
Isn't that better than drilling in ANWR?
Electric cars are in our future, but those available today take too long to charge and have a range of only about 20 miles. As technology progresses, electric (and other types) of cars will become competitive with gasoline-consuming vehicles, and will eventually replace them. ANWR oil is needed in the near future (7-15 years from now) to give us more time to develop the new technologies without being gouged and blackmailed by foreign oil producers.

12. But if we switch from gasoline-powered to electric cars, why make synthetic fuel?
Airplanes, helicopters, rockets, trains, and trucks cannot be powered by electricity (with today's technology, anyway); they will continue to need a liquid fuel. Besides, synthetic petroleum-substitutes will be needed for road-paving, lubrication, and many industrial processes. As the world becomes more industrialized, the demand for these products is certain to grow.

13. How will we answer when our children ask us why we reduced caribou breeding grounds just to get some more oil?
Tell them that the next time they want a ride somewhere, take a caribou.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(1)"How will future generations judge our stewardship?"Milwaukee Journal Sentinel Crossroads, March 27, 2005.
(2)"At last, common sense prevails as nation faces its energy needs," same section, same date.
(3)http:home.earthlink.net/oilandyou.
(4) Innovations Report, Univ. of Missouri-Columbia, July 28, 2004.

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