Iran Plays Nuclear "Chicken"

When two drivers play "Chicken" they race toward each other on a narrow road, and the first one to swerve to avoid the other is the "chicken" and loses the game. Suppose we call the drivers A and B. If B convinces A that he is crazy, B wins, because A will swerve believing that B is irrational. B does not have to really be crazy to win this way, just act nutty enough to scare A .

Now, consider the recent actions by Iran, under the leadership of crackpot President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and see if perhaps the Islamic Republic is playing a high-stakes game of "Chicken" in the Middle East:

1. Nuclear Defiance
After the UN passed additional trade sanctions against Iran March 24 to coerce compliance with anti-proliferation inspection demands, Iran suspended co-operation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. I suspect that Iran wants the world to believe that it is developing nuclear weapons, even while publicly denying it. Perhaps Iran is refusing the inspections because they would reveal that the nuclear program is actually going badly.

2. Seizure of British Sailors
Iranian naval forces captured 15 British sailors March 23 in the Shatt-Al-Arab waterway, in an area claimed by both Iraq and Iran. The captives have been taken to Tehran, where they may be held as hostages; I would not be surprised if they were kept near an Iranian nuclear facility to act as human shields for the centrifuges.
Iran has again taken advantage of the Western concern for the fate of hostages, which can be used to extract concessions. If, in contrast, Iranians were taken captive, they would be written-off as "expendable" and nothing would be offered for them.

3. Hizbollah
Iran not only arms and trains the Shiite militia in Lebanon, but goaded it into provoking a war with Israel last summer. The war served Iran's interests two ways: empowering Hizbollah and exacerbating tensions between Israel and the Arab World. As a result of this war, Hizbollah is positioned to seize power in Lebanon, and make that state a satellite of Iran. The war also makes it more difficult for Arab regimes to seek help from Israel in thwarting Iranian ambitions to dominate the Middle East.

4. Intervention in Iraq
Iranian agents have been captured in Iraq, where they were assisting Shiite militias. As long as American and British forces are in Iraq, Iran's intervention will be low-key. However, once those forces are withdrawn Iraq's Shiite-controlled government may invite the Iranian army to assist with crushing the Sunni insurrection. Watch for Iran to become the dominant power in Iraq after the US pull-out, which will alarm Arab (1) countries that border Iraq: Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates. All of these countries have Shiite minorities, but are ruled by Sunnis, making them prime targets for Iranian subversion and intimidation. Even Syria, which is co-operating with Iran, would be threatened by an Iranian take-over in Iraq. (2)

The threat of an aggressive, and possibly nuclear, Iran may be a factor in the effort by Saudi Arabia to settle the Israel-Palestinian dispute. According to Thomas Friedman, perhaps the Jew closest to the Saudi throne, King Abdullah will push his peace-plan at the Arab Summit in Riyadh March 28-29. (3) Saudi and Israeli officials have reportedly met privately; there is now talk of a "regional peace summit" at which Saudi representatives would meet their Israeli counterparts in public for the first time. At this is written, Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice is trying to arrange conference.

The Saudi monarchy relies upon a military and diplomatic alliance with the United States coupled with the support of the fanatic Islamist Wahhabi mullahs at home. The trouble is that these two sources of support are diametrically opposed on the Israel-Palestinian conflict. Therefore, settling this conflict is urgent for the House of Saud, especially if the Kingdom needs the Arrow missile (4) for defense against Iran.

Despite their enormous oil wealth, the Saudis are playing a weak hand in the Israel-Palestinian conflict. Hamas, with the full support of Iran, has steadfastly refused to make a durable peace with Israel; despite this, Hamas now has a power-sharing agreement with PA President Mahmoud Abbas, and European governments are gradually beginning to deal with the Palestinian coalition. The Saudi plan, which calls for the right of Arabs to "return" to Israel, leaves the Jewish State cold too. Although Israel is also threatened by Iran, Israel has no incentive to make unilateral concessions to a Palestinian regime which cannot (and/or will not) deliver peace. Even though agreement seems very remote, both Israeli and Palestinian officials have tentatively agreed to participate in the proposed regional peace summit.

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(1)Turkey, which lies on Iraq's northern border, would be adversely affected by Iranian domination of Iraq for a somewhat different reason: If Iran moves in, Iraqi Kurds would secede from Iraq and form and independent Kurdistan. Turkish Kurds would then be impelled to try to break away from Turkey and join the new nation.

(2) Although most Syrians are Sunni, the country is ruled by members of the tiny Alawi sect, which is akin to Shia Islam. If Iranians start massacring Sunnis across the border in Iraq, Syrian Sunnis could turn against the Assad regime, which is perceived as allied with Iran.

(3)New York Times, March 24, 2007.

(4)See the March 13 Glazerbeam on this. Since Israel is co-developing and co-producing the Arrow Missile, I understand that no other nation will be able to buy it from the US without Israel's consent.