Nominate Nelson

Of the four candidates seeking the Democratic nomination for Lieutenant Governor (LG) of Wisconsin in the September 14 Primary Election, only two have legislative experience: State Senator G Spencer Coggs of Milwaukee and
Assembly Majority Leader Thomas Nelson of Kaukauna. Here is why each man claims that he would do more to enhance the Democratic ticket in November than any of his rivals (1):

Coggs says that he would "deliver the minority vote ....he would counter the negatives (Milwaukee Mayor Tom) Barrett has accumulated through his pursuit of a mayoral takeover of the Milwaukee Public Schools and backlash over the July floods."

Nelson says, "I'm the only one running who has any experience taking on a tough Republican opponent and beating them (sic) in their own backyard."

So, who has the better case? Let's evaluate Coggs' claim first: his presence on the ticket would be a significant factor in getting "minority" (i.e. black) votes for the Barrett ticket. In 2006, Milwaukee's overwhelmingly black First Aldermanic District gave the Democratic nominee Governor Jim Doyle 8,950 votes to 1,339 for the Republican Mark Green. Of Doyle's vote, 5,999 was straight Democratic, while only 284 of Green's was straight Republican. ( In partisan elections the tendency of blacks to vote Democratic is even stronger than their tendency to "vote black." (3) ) Doyle did not need a black running-mate to run-up this lopsided result, so why does Barrett?

Perhaps Coggs is right about the lack of enthusiasm for Barrett among black voters: after all, he defeated the first black Mayor of Milwaukee, Marvin Pratt, in 2004. But I contend that even if Coggs loses the LG primary, very few black voters will back the Republicans. That is because blacks are disproportionately poor, and so depend more on social welfare programs (such as Medicaid, food stamps, etc.) that the Democratic Party supports. They are not so sore at Barrett that they would prefer a candidate likely to cut state spending on these programs. Moreover, if Barrett becomes Governor, Common Council Chairman Willie Hines will become the city's second black Mayor! That is a huge incentive for blacks to vote for Barrett, no matter who is nominated for LG.

I will concede that having Coggs on the ticket might "goose-up" turnout among black voters, and thus increase the Democratic vote, but that effect may be more than offset by the number of whites who would vote Republican if he were slated.

Since Coggs introduced the "race card" into this contest by implying that his race would help the Democratic ticket, it is only fair to also consider the downside of nominating him for LG. In the entire history of the State of Wisconsin, only one black candidate, Vel Phillips, has ever been elected to statewide office, Secretary of State OK, Barack Obama carried Wisconsin in 2008. But Louis Butler was the only incumbent Justice of the State Supreme to lose an election since 1967, and his race probably worked against him.

Although nominating Coggs would balance the ticket racially, it would severely unbalance it geographically: both Barrett and Coggs live in the City of Milwaukee. No one from Milwaukee has been elected Governor of Wisconsin in about a hundred years, and even incumbent (Acting) Governor Martin J Schreiber of Milwaukee could not win a term of his own in 1978. Maybe voters from other parts of the state suspect that a Milwaukeean would show preference for his home town in allocating state resources, but the bias against our fair city is undeniable. (4) To nominate another Milwaukeean (regardless of race) for LG would place the ticket at an insurmountable disadvantage.

On the other hand, Tom Nelson, who defeated a Republican incumbent in 2004 in Kaukana, would bring some needed strength to the ticket in the Fox River Valley, a "swing district." It is significant that in less than six years Nelson rose to the position of Majority Leader of the Assembly; although Coggs has been in the State Senate one year longer, he is not a leader of that chamber.

Comparing the competing claims of these two rivals for the nomination indicates that Nelson's claim to enhance the electability of the ticket rings true, while Coggs' does not. But beyond that, note that Nelson's claim is based on what he has done, while Coggs' claim is based on who he is. Every politician is a member of some ethnic or religious group, but only some trade on their identity. I prefer those who do not.

The name "Nelson" has been lucky for Wisconsin Democrats in the past, and I hope that they will go with it again now.

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(1) Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Aug. 28, 2010, page 3B.

(2) Election Commission of the City of Milwaukee, 2006-07 Report

(3) In 1988 a black businesswoman named Helen Barnhill was the Republican nominee against white Democratic Congressman Jim Moody in the old 5th District, then the northern half of Milwaukee. Moody trounced Barnhill in every black neighborhood of the district.

(4) However, Herb Kohl of Milwaukee was elected US Senator in 1988 and ever since. Unlike Schreiber, Kohl never represented Milwaukee in the legislature or Congress, so many voters either did not know or did not care what city he lived in. Also, US senators have no role in allocating state resources.