Losing Lebanon
"Those who want to help the Lebanese Army , but place conditions on how their funds or weapons are used (i.e. not against Israel), should keep their money."
Elias Murr, Defense Minister of Lebanon (1)
"We..believe that investing in the Lebanese.... military serves as a stabilizing influence and strengthens Lebanon's sovereignty."
Phillip J Crowley, spokesman for the US Department of State (1)
The first quote indicates that our side has lost the struggle to keep Lebanon out of the Arab-Iranian alliance against Israel, and the second quote shows that our government does not yet know it.
Since 2005 the US has provided the Lebanese military with over $400 million in military aid, about $100 per citizen, a figure second only to per-capita military aid to Israel. (2) Congress cut-off military aid to Lebanon earlier this month after a Lebanese soldier killed an Israeli soldier and wounded several others in a border clash. But just what military threat does Lebanon face?
Lebanon is on Israel's northern border and is otherwise surrounded by Syria and the Mediterranean Sea. Syria, which has treated the tiny republic like a wayward province, occupied Lebanon's Bekaa Valley with over 15,000 troops until pressured to withdraw by the Western powers in 2005. However, Syria still wields major political influence in the country through its non-uniformed agents and Hezbollah (the Party of Allah), the militia of the Shiite population. Since Hezbollah is a major factor in the Lebanese government (a Hezbollah-led alliance finished second in the 2009 parliamentary election), the use of Lebanese armed forces to disarm or otherwise restrain Hezbollah would rekindle the Civil War, which tore the country asunder between 1975 and 1990. Similarly, the prospect of the 75,000-man Lebanese Army defending the country against Syria, the top supplier to Hezbollah, is absurd.
So why does the Lebanese military need hundreds of millions of dollars worth of American arms and ammunition? The answer, unfortunately, is on the sole remaining border: that with Israel. While the US government has considered the Lebanese military a counterweight to the growing power of Hezbollah and other Muslim militias in the country, the statement by the Defense Minister shows that the present government will use its arms only against its real enemy: Israel. The border clash noted above, combined with the abject failure of Lebanese forces to keep Hezbollah out of the southern zone that borders Israel, confirms this conclusion.
Lebanon is a deeply divided country: about 28% Sunni Muslim, another 28% Shiite, 39% Christian (mainly Maronite) and 5% Druze. (2) During the late 1970's Israel tried to form an alliance with Lebanese Christians against the Palestinians and other Muslims, but that effort failed. Today, most Lebanese Christian politicians are aligned with Syria or Hezbollah. Although large numbers of Lebanese resent Hezbollah for starting a war with Israel in 2006, I believe that most hate Israel even more for the extensive bombing of the country, whose effects remain to this day in many southern villages.
If the Lebanese Army will do nothing to restrain Hezbollah, there is no reason to resume military aid to the country, which will just be used against Israel in case of another war. Although I pray for peace three times a day, I believe that Hezbollah will launch a rocket attack against Israel in the near future. That is because the Shiite militia has acquired about 40,000 rockets, and the impulse to use them cannot be resisted indefinitely. However, I also believe that the IDF will use any Hezbollah attack as a pretext to bomb Iran's nuclear reactors and missile sites, triggering a full-scale Mideast war that will probably involve Syria as well.
Our only hope for peace is that Iranian and Syrian leaders will use their influence to restrain Hezbollah, if only to prevent Israeli bombs and missiles from landing on their heads. This situation is eerily similar to the that of the summer of 1914, when the party with the least to lose (the Bosnian Serbs) were able to spark a terrible war with just one act of violence.
I just hope I am wrong!
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(1) National Council of Young Israel, Aug. 18, 2010 e-mail.
(2) Wikipedia article on Lebanon.
Elias Murr, Defense Minister of Lebanon (1)
"We..believe that investing in the Lebanese.... military serves as a stabilizing influence and strengthens Lebanon's sovereignty."
Phillip J Crowley, spokesman for the US Department of State (1)
The first quote indicates that our side has lost the struggle to keep Lebanon out of the Arab-Iranian alliance against Israel, and the second quote shows that our government does not yet know it.
Since 2005 the US has provided the Lebanese military with over $400 million in military aid, about $100 per citizen, a figure second only to per-capita military aid to Israel. (2) Congress cut-off military aid to Lebanon earlier this month after a Lebanese soldier killed an Israeli soldier and wounded several others in a border clash. But just what military threat does Lebanon face?
Lebanon is on Israel's northern border and is otherwise surrounded by Syria and the Mediterranean Sea. Syria, which has treated the tiny republic like a wayward province, occupied Lebanon's Bekaa Valley with over 15,000 troops until pressured to withdraw by the Western powers in 2005. However, Syria still wields major political influence in the country through its non-uniformed agents and Hezbollah (the Party of Allah), the militia of the Shiite population. Since Hezbollah is a major factor in the Lebanese government (a Hezbollah-led alliance finished second in the 2009 parliamentary election), the use of Lebanese armed forces to disarm or otherwise restrain Hezbollah would rekindle the Civil War, which tore the country asunder between 1975 and 1990. Similarly, the prospect of the 75,000-man Lebanese Army defending the country against Syria, the top supplier to Hezbollah, is absurd.
So why does the Lebanese military need hundreds of millions of dollars worth of American arms and ammunition? The answer, unfortunately, is on the sole remaining border: that with Israel. While the US government has considered the Lebanese military a counterweight to the growing power of Hezbollah and other Muslim militias in the country, the statement by the Defense Minister shows that the present government will use its arms only against its real enemy: Israel. The border clash noted above, combined with the abject failure of Lebanese forces to keep Hezbollah out of the southern zone that borders Israel, confirms this conclusion.
Lebanon is a deeply divided country: about 28% Sunni Muslim, another 28% Shiite, 39% Christian (mainly Maronite) and 5% Druze. (2) During the late 1970's Israel tried to form an alliance with Lebanese Christians against the Palestinians and other Muslims, but that effort failed. Today, most Lebanese Christian politicians are aligned with Syria or Hezbollah. Although large numbers of Lebanese resent Hezbollah for starting a war with Israel in 2006, I believe that most hate Israel even more for the extensive bombing of the country, whose effects remain to this day in many southern villages.
If the Lebanese Army will do nothing to restrain Hezbollah, there is no reason to resume military aid to the country, which will just be used against Israel in case of another war. Although I pray for peace three times a day, I believe that Hezbollah will launch a rocket attack against Israel in the near future. That is because the Shiite militia has acquired about 40,000 rockets, and the impulse to use them cannot be resisted indefinitely. However, I also believe that the IDF will use any Hezbollah attack as a pretext to bomb Iran's nuclear reactors and missile sites, triggering a full-scale Mideast war that will probably involve Syria as well.
Our only hope for peace is that Iranian and Syrian leaders will use their influence to restrain Hezbollah, if only to prevent Israeli bombs and missiles from landing on their heads. This situation is eerily similar to the that of the summer of 1914, when the party with the least to lose (the Bosnian Serbs) were able to spark a terrible war with just one act of violence.
I just hope I am wrong!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(1) National Council of Young Israel, Aug. 18, 2010 e-mail.
(2) Wikipedia article on Lebanon.
posted by Gerald S Glazer at 9:51 AM
1 Comments:
Excellent analysis but given your comment "Our only hope for peace is that Iranian and Syrian leaders will use their influence to restrain Hezbollah,", then considering you are referring to Iran which will have a nuclear bomb soon and Syria which had a nuclear plant built by North Korea that was designed to produce a nuclear bomb was recently destroyed by Israel; then you are saying that there is no hope.
I agree with your assessment and much of it is due to our president who has done nothing to reign in Iran or Syria but has spent his time and energy trying to weaken Israel by not allowing it to buy necessary new miliraty hardware (he has recently agreed to sell Israel F-35's but requests for other important hardware have been denied. Howeever this same military equipement is being sold to Arab states).
Obama had a great opportunity to topple Amadhiunajab when there was a chance for a revolt due to his fixing the election, but Obama not only did nothing he supported Amadhinajab.
Regaridng Syria Obama sent Mitchell there as a good will gesture, basically telling Syria to do what it wants to do.
Obama removed troops for Iraq and refused to give thw anti-missle system to Eastern European countries to appease Russia and has agreed to a nuclear disarmanemt agreement with Russia which is unverifiable.
Taking all this together Obama has projected an image of weakness, an image that he will do nothing to assist Israel. This too provides a major impetus and removes a major deterrence to Syria and Iran. This too, and maybe this is the most important factor, which will cause or allow the war Mr Glazer is predicting.
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