Is Peace At Hand?
"(President George W) Bush called Monday (July 16) for an international conference in the Fall aimed at restarting peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians............
( President Beshir) Assad said Syria was ready for peace talks with Israel, but only in the presence of.....an honest broker." (1)
The only thing more dangerous than Syrians talking war is Syrians talking peace. But is Bush right in believing that times are propitious for a peace settlement in the Middle East, and is Syria really ready to play a constructive role in achieving it?
Here are some of the key players in the drama:
Hezbollah. Nearly a year has passed since the Shiiite militia killed and captured Israeli soldiers near the Lebanese border, and responded to the Israeli invasion that followed by lobbing rockets into Israeli cities. Although Hezbollah achieved a propaganda victory by avoiding total defeat in over a month of fighting with Israel, the militia is now sharing southern Lebanon with UN and Lebanese government forces. Syria has acted as a conduit for money and weapons between Iran and Hezbollah for years, and the "Party of Allah" is Syria's "cat's paw" in Beirut politics.
If Israel withdraws from the Golan Heights without foreign peacekeeping troops replacing the Israelis, what is to stop Hezbollah from moving rockets into Golan and firing them into Israel?
Given Syria's alliance with Iran, which supports Hezbollah's jihad against Israel, can Syria be trusted to safeguard this frontier?
Hamas: Syria permits Hamas leader Khaled Meshal to speak from Damascus. Although Hamas has denounced the very idea of peace talks with Israel, it is likely that Syria will run interference for the Islamic movement at the conference.
Thanks to the efforts of President Bush, the Palestinian Authority (PA) has an elective government, but that did not stop Hamas from seizing control of Gaza by brute force anyway. It is possible that before too long, Hamas might win control of the West Bank as well, either by the ballot or the bullet.
Fatah: When Fatah is described as "corrupt", one might think that its cops are fixing speeding tickets or its building inspectors are taking bribes from slum landlords to ignore code violations. What is meant by Fatah corruption is theft of hundreds of millions, perhaps billions, of dollars meant for the Palestinian people by a few insiders. For example, Yassir Arafat, a man from modest circumstances who worked full-time for Fatah, PLO and the PA nearly all his adult life, left an estate of several billion dollars. Interior Minister Dahlan is suspected of embezzling over $100 million. The mass misery in the PA is largely due to this thievery, which has been a major factor in the rise of Hamas.
If you were a Palestinian Muslim, who would you like better?
Israel: Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, like a drunken gambler, has bet all his chips, his house, his garage, and his sukah on Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Fatah. Not only has he agreed to release 250 Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails, he dropped charges against another 178 wanted terrorists based only on their promise to abandon terrorism and join Fatah.
Now, that's amnesty!
President Bush is probably unhappy with his 29% approval rating in recent polls, but Olmert would be ecstatic with anywhere near 29% support from Israelis. I think his approval rating is higher in Ramallah than in Tel Aviv right now.Olmert remains in office only because most members of Knesset are too chicken to face parliamentary elections before they have to.
The trouble with the Olmert strategy in backing Fatah is that the more Abbas is seen as a tool of Israel, the less credibility he has with his own people, and the more chance Hamas has to replace him.
United States: The US is so desperate for help in stabilizing Iraq that we are now making diplomatic overtures to Iran and Syria. The Syrians may have concluded that the US is willing to lean hard on Israel to withdraw from the Golan Heights if Syria will co-operate on Iraq. This might explain Syria's interest in seeking a settlement with Israel now, while American troops are still in Iraq. The Syrians, along with everyone else, know that the US presence in Iraq will be over within about the next two years, so the leverage Damascus has with Washington now will not last long.
Now in his last 18 months as President, George W Bush would like to solve the Middle East conflict before leaving office. To do so would enhance his legacy, so deeply marred by the mess in nearby Iraq. The trouble is that his clout with Israel (bolstered by nearly $2 billion of aid per year) is not matched by any sort of influence with the parties that oppose peace: Hamas, Hezbolah, or Iran. Even those who may make a peace settlement, namely Syria and Fatah, may be unable or unwilling to impose peace upon the jihadists in their midst.
The worst-case scenario is that a peace settlement results in Hezbollah on the Golan and Hamas (or Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade) in power on the West Bank. I yearn for a negotiated settlement, but unlike Mr Bush, I am not so confident that peace is at hand.
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(1) Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, July 18, page 12A.
( President Beshir) Assad said Syria was ready for peace talks with Israel, but only in the presence of.....an honest broker." (1)
The only thing more dangerous than Syrians talking war is Syrians talking peace. But is Bush right in believing that times are propitious for a peace settlement in the Middle East, and is Syria really ready to play a constructive role in achieving it?
Here are some of the key players in the drama:
Hezbollah. Nearly a year has passed since the Shiiite militia killed and captured Israeli soldiers near the Lebanese border, and responded to the Israeli invasion that followed by lobbing rockets into Israeli cities. Although Hezbollah achieved a propaganda victory by avoiding total defeat in over a month of fighting with Israel, the militia is now sharing southern Lebanon with UN and Lebanese government forces. Syria has acted as a conduit for money and weapons between Iran and Hezbollah for years, and the "Party of Allah" is Syria's "cat's paw" in Beirut politics.
If Israel withdraws from the Golan Heights without foreign peacekeeping troops replacing the Israelis, what is to stop Hezbollah from moving rockets into Golan and firing them into Israel?
Given Syria's alliance with Iran, which supports Hezbollah's jihad against Israel, can Syria be trusted to safeguard this frontier?
Hamas: Syria permits Hamas leader Khaled Meshal to speak from Damascus. Although Hamas has denounced the very idea of peace talks with Israel, it is likely that Syria will run interference for the Islamic movement at the conference.
Thanks to the efforts of President Bush, the Palestinian Authority (PA) has an elective government, but that did not stop Hamas from seizing control of Gaza by brute force anyway. It is possible that before too long, Hamas might win control of the West Bank as well, either by the ballot or the bullet.
Fatah: When Fatah is described as "corrupt", one might think that its cops are fixing speeding tickets or its building inspectors are taking bribes from slum landlords to ignore code violations. What is meant by Fatah corruption is theft of hundreds of millions, perhaps billions, of dollars meant for the Palestinian people by a few insiders. For example, Yassir Arafat, a man from modest circumstances who worked full-time for Fatah, PLO and the PA nearly all his adult life, left an estate of several billion dollars. Interior Minister Dahlan is suspected of embezzling over $100 million. The mass misery in the PA is largely due to this thievery, which has been a major factor in the rise of Hamas.
If you were a Palestinian Muslim, who would you like better?
Israel: Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, like a drunken gambler, has bet all his chips, his house, his garage, and his sukah on Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Fatah. Not only has he agreed to release 250 Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails, he dropped charges against another 178 wanted terrorists based only on their promise to abandon terrorism and join Fatah.
Now, that's amnesty!
President Bush is probably unhappy with his 29% approval rating in recent polls, but Olmert would be ecstatic with anywhere near 29% support from Israelis. I think his approval rating is higher in Ramallah than in Tel Aviv right now.Olmert remains in office only because most members of Knesset are too chicken to face parliamentary elections before they have to.
The trouble with the Olmert strategy in backing Fatah is that the more Abbas is seen as a tool of Israel, the less credibility he has with his own people, and the more chance Hamas has to replace him.
United States: The US is so desperate for help in stabilizing Iraq that we are now making diplomatic overtures to Iran and Syria. The Syrians may have concluded that the US is willing to lean hard on Israel to withdraw from the Golan Heights if Syria will co-operate on Iraq. This might explain Syria's interest in seeking a settlement with Israel now, while American troops are still in Iraq. The Syrians, along with everyone else, know that the US presence in Iraq will be over within about the next two years, so the leverage Damascus has with Washington now will not last long.
Now in his last 18 months as President, George W Bush would like to solve the Middle East conflict before leaving office. To do so would enhance his legacy, so deeply marred by the mess in nearby Iraq. The trouble is that his clout with Israel (bolstered by nearly $2 billion of aid per year) is not matched by any sort of influence with the parties that oppose peace: Hamas, Hezbolah, or Iran. Even those who may make a peace settlement, namely Syria and Fatah, may be unable or unwilling to impose peace upon the jihadists in their midst.
The worst-case scenario is that a peace settlement results in Hezbollah on the Golan and Hamas (or Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade) in power on the West Bank. I yearn for a negotiated settlement, but unlike Mr Bush, I am not so confident that peace is at hand.
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(1) Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, July 18, page 12A.
posted by Gerald S Glazer at 9:05 AM
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