Contacting Cuba
President Barack Obama announced three changes to US restrictions on trade and travel to Cuba on April 13, 2009. The new rules would allow:
1. Unlimited transfers of money to relatives in Cuba.
2. Unlimited visits to relatives in Cuba.
3. American firms to provide TV, radio and telecommunications services to Cuba. (1)
Older readers will recall that the trade and travel restrictions were imposed by President Dwight Eisenhower in 1959, after the Castro regime seized many hotels, casinos, and other American-owned businesses. Americans were also appalled by the massive public executions of officials and soldiers of the deposed Batista government after brief trials.
While imposing communism on the island, Fidel Castro forged a strong alliance with the Soviet Union. After crushing an American-backed invasion by Cuban exiles in April 1961, Castro permitted the establishment of Soviet nuclear-missile bases in Cuba; the missiles were removed after President John F Kennedy blockaded the island in October, 1962. The CIA attempted to kill Fidel Castro for several years thereafter.
With massive Soviet aid, Cuba fomented communist revolutions in Latin America (2) and Africa . Some pundits forecast the imminent demise of the Castro regime after the collapse of the Soviet Union in late 1991, but the regime (now under the leadership of younger brother Raul Castro) still rules Cuba. Today Cuba resembles an East Germany with sugar plantations; but it is no longer a threat to the security or stability of the Western Hemisphere. It is a miserable place, made even more miserable by the US trade restrictions.
Trade sanctions played a key role in regime change in South Africa in the 1980's; why have they been so ineffective in Cuba?
First, the sanctions against South Africa were enforced by all the major economies of the world; the sanctions against Cuba bind only the United States. More important, the Union of South Africa was a parliamentary democracy for whites, although not for blacks. This meant that whites who opposed apartheid were free to speak openly and work against the system in the political arena. Since the trade sanctions impacted the economy of the white ruling class, they strengthened the hand of the opponents of apartheid until the opponents prevailed.
When imposed on a country living under communist or fascist rule (such as Cuba or Sadam's Iraq), trade sanctions fail to seriously affect the small group holding real power. No matter how much the population suffers from trade restrictions, they remain powerless to topple the regime. People would rather live without imported goods than risk a bullet to the head or decades in prison.
Will lifting the restrictions noted above, or even removing all trade restrictions, bring about change in Cuba? The first two reforms will certainly make life more tolerable for Cubans with American relatives. Allowing American radio and TV into Cuba could really shake things up, which is why I doubt that Raoul will permit it. But within the next twenty years it is virtually certain that new leaders, born after the Revolution of 1959, will come to power. If the examples of Russia and China are relevant to Cuba, these new leaders will liberalize the system, perhaps even allowing capitalism to replace communism.
Viewed in this context, the easing of restrictions by President Obama are mere baby-steps toward full normalization of US-Cuba trade and diplomatic relations. Since these reforms also reduce government interference in the activities of Americans, those of us who cherish liberty should applaud them.
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(1) Associated Press, April 14, 2009.
(2) Ernesto ("Che") Guevara, one of Castro's most ruthless henchmen, was killed while fomenting revolution in Bolivia. Some say that Castro viewed him as a potential rival, and sent him to Bolivia to get him out of the way.
1. Unlimited transfers of money to relatives in Cuba.
2. Unlimited visits to relatives in Cuba.
3. American firms to provide TV, radio and telecommunications services to Cuba. (1)
Older readers will recall that the trade and travel restrictions were imposed by President Dwight Eisenhower in 1959, after the Castro regime seized many hotels, casinos, and other American-owned businesses. Americans were also appalled by the massive public executions of officials and soldiers of the deposed Batista government after brief trials.
While imposing communism on the island, Fidel Castro forged a strong alliance with the Soviet Union. After crushing an American-backed invasion by Cuban exiles in April 1961, Castro permitted the establishment of Soviet nuclear-missile bases in Cuba; the missiles were removed after President John F Kennedy blockaded the island in October, 1962. The CIA attempted to kill Fidel Castro for several years thereafter.
With massive Soviet aid, Cuba fomented communist revolutions in Latin America (2) and Africa . Some pundits forecast the imminent demise of the Castro regime after the collapse of the Soviet Union in late 1991, but the regime (now under the leadership of younger brother Raul Castro) still rules Cuba. Today Cuba resembles an East Germany with sugar plantations; but it is no longer a threat to the security or stability of the Western Hemisphere. It is a miserable place, made even more miserable by the US trade restrictions.
Trade sanctions played a key role in regime change in South Africa in the 1980's; why have they been so ineffective in Cuba?
First, the sanctions against South Africa were enforced by all the major economies of the world; the sanctions against Cuba bind only the United States. More important, the Union of South Africa was a parliamentary democracy for whites, although not for blacks. This meant that whites who opposed apartheid were free to speak openly and work against the system in the political arena. Since the trade sanctions impacted the economy of the white ruling class, they strengthened the hand of the opponents of apartheid until the opponents prevailed.
When imposed on a country living under communist or fascist rule (such as Cuba or Sadam's Iraq), trade sanctions fail to seriously affect the small group holding real power. No matter how much the population suffers from trade restrictions, they remain powerless to topple the regime. People would rather live without imported goods than risk a bullet to the head or decades in prison.
Will lifting the restrictions noted above, or even removing all trade restrictions, bring about change in Cuba? The first two reforms will certainly make life more tolerable for Cubans with American relatives. Allowing American radio and TV into Cuba could really shake things up, which is why I doubt that Raoul will permit it. But within the next twenty years it is virtually certain that new leaders, born after the Revolution of 1959, will come to power. If the examples of Russia and China are relevant to Cuba, these new leaders will liberalize the system, perhaps even allowing capitalism to replace communism.
Viewed in this context, the easing of restrictions by President Obama are mere baby-steps toward full normalization of US-Cuba trade and diplomatic relations. Since these reforms also reduce government interference in the activities of Americans, those of us who cherish liberty should applaud them.
------------------------------------------------------------------
(1) Associated Press, April 14, 2009.
(2) Ernesto ("Che") Guevara, one of Castro's most ruthless henchmen, was killed while fomenting revolution in Bolivia. Some say that Castro viewed him as a potential rival, and sent him to Bolivia to get him out of the way.
posted by Gerald S Glazer at 9:38 AM
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