Iran Faces Armageddon
"Iran filed a UN Security Council complaint after an Israeli official threatened to attack its nuclear facilities."
Jewish Telegraphic Agency (JTA)
Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz said that Israel would have no choice but to attack Iran, given the failure of UN sanctions to curb its nuclear program, according to Yediot Aharonot on Friday, June 6, 2008. It is not clear if Mofaz was authorized by the Cabinet to make this statement.
If so, it can be taken as a message to the ruling Guardian Council of Iran that the reckless threats made by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are leading Iran into a war with Israel. (1)
If Mofaz was speaking for himself, he may be positioning himself as a more hawkish alternative to Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, if Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is forced to resign because of a corruption investigation now underway.
The Iranians have reacted like a schoolyard bully who goes around picking fights, then complains to the teacher when someone thrashes him. Jews have learned from bitter history to take threats to their existence seriously. Ahmadinejad can afford to be ignorant of this history, but the Jews cannot. His repeated threats to "wipe Israel off the map" have made Iran's enrichment of uranium a greater danger than it would be otherwise.
Q. What is "uranium enrichment" and why is Iran doing it now?
A. Over 99% of the uranium found in the world has atomic weight (2) 238, while less than one percent has weight 235. Only the lighter isotope (U-235) is useful for generating electricity or atomic bombs. To generate electric power, a mass of uranium must contain at least 20% U-235; to make a bomb, the uranium must be at least 80% U-235.
To increase the percentage of U-235 in a supply of uranium, it is combined with fluorine to form the gas uranium hexafluoride (UF-6), which is then spun in a centrifuge. The lighter gas ( containing the U-235) rises and is drawn off from the upper part of the centrifuge. The process is repeated until the percentage of U-235 reaches the desired range.
If Iran is enriching uranium only to generate electricity, there is no need to enrich the supply beyond about 20% U-235. Continuing the enrichment process to anywhere near the 80% level is a sure sign that weapons-grade uranium is being produced. Iran has refused to allow the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to inspect its nuclear facilities to ascertain the level of enrichment going on. This refusal is taken a sign that Iran intends to enrich the uranium to the level required for an atomic bomb.
Q. Can airstrikes alone stop Iran from going nuclear?
A. Yes, if the location of the reactors and centrifuges are known. Although many (if not all) of Iran's nuclear facilities are deep underground, accurate bombing could block access to them from the surface, and powerful enough bombs could even destroy them underground. Both Israel and the United States have high-resolution satellite-imaging systems that can monitor these sites. However spies on the ground, especially those working on the program, would be invaluable in making the strikes successful. Of course, there is no way to know if either the US or Israel has such spies in place in Iran.
Q. If this happened, could Iran rebuild the facilities and re-start a nuclear program later?
A. Yes, but that would take years and be extremely expensive. Since the new facilities could also be destroyed, the leaders of Iran might decide that it is not worthwhile to do so. Also, political change in Iran in the months and years following an attack on the nuclear sites may quash the effort to develop nuclear weapons.
Q. How would Iran respond to destruction of its nuclear facilities by Israel?
A. Unless Israel first destroyed Iran's air force and missile sites in a "June 1967"-type attack, Iran would no doubt launch missiles at Israel in return. However, Israel's Arrow anti-missile defense system could explode the Iranian missiles in mid-air.
Iran would also demand that Hezbollah fire its thousands of missiles from Lebanon at Israel, triggering another war with the Shiite militia.
Q. If the uranium enrichment continues, might President Bush attack Iran's nuclear facilities before the end of his term?
A. There have been reports that he has decided to do so, even though the November, 2007, National Defense Estimate on Iran claimed that the Islamic Republic had cancelled its nuclear weapons development program in 2003. He would not dare to launch an attack against Iran before the US presidential election (November 4), since that could sink Republican chances for both the White House and Congress (3). If the US were to launch such an attack, the window of opportunity would be November 5, 2008-January 21, 2009. If that does not occur by Inauguration Day, look for Israel to attack Iran .
Q. How can the ruling Guardian Council save Iran from this disaster ?
A.1. Depose President Ahmadinejad. (4)
2. Allow the AIEA to inspect all Iranian nuclear facilities to verify that enrichment is not proceeding beyond the level needed for generating electricity.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(1) Grand Ayatollah Ali Khameini, chief of the ruling Guardian Council, has flatly contradicted all these threats, saying that "Iran is not a threat to any nation, not even the Zionist entity. " However, so far neither Khameini nor the Guardian Council have taken even one step (as far as we know) to restrain the President's rhetoric.
(2) The atomic weight of an element is the number of of all protons and neutrons in its atomic nucleus. The number of protons alone determine which element the atom represents; two forms of the same element that contain different numbers of neutrons ( and thus have different atomic weights, such as U-235 and U-238) are called isotopes.
(3) Any war involving Iran would send oil prices "through the roof." No matter how the war turned out, voters would reject the President's party if high gasoline prices could be blamed on his action.
(4) Ahmadinejad's term as President of Iran expires in 2009, and there is no indication he intends to seek re-election at that time. The Guardian Council can bar any candidate from the ballot. I believe they also have the power to remove an incumbent President, though this has not been done so far.
Jewish Telegraphic Agency (JTA)
Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz said that Israel would have no choice but to attack Iran, given the failure of UN sanctions to curb its nuclear program, according to Yediot Aharonot on Friday, June 6, 2008. It is not clear if Mofaz was authorized by the Cabinet to make this statement.
If so, it can be taken as a message to the ruling Guardian Council of Iran that the reckless threats made by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are leading Iran into a war with Israel. (1)
If Mofaz was speaking for himself, he may be positioning himself as a more hawkish alternative to Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, if Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is forced to resign because of a corruption investigation now underway.
The Iranians have reacted like a schoolyard bully who goes around picking fights, then complains to the teacher when someone thrashes him. Jews have learned from bitter history to take threats to their existence seriously. Ahmadinejad can afford to be ignorant of this history, but the Jews cannot. His repeated threats to "wipe Israel off the map" have made Iran's enrichment of uranium a greater danger than it would be otherwise.
Q. What is "uranium enrichment" and why is Iran doing it now?
A. Over 99% of the uranium found in the world has atomic weight (2) 238, while less than one percent has weight 235. Only the lighter isotope (U-235) is useful for generating electricity or atomic bombs. To generate electric power, a mass of uranium must contain at least 20% U-235; to make a bomb, the uranium must be at least 80% U-235.
To increase the percentage of U-235 in a supply of uranium, it is combined with fluorine to form the gas uranium hexafluoride (UF-6), which is then spun in a centrifuge. The lighter gas ( containing the U-235) rises and is drawn off from the upper part of the centrifuge. The process is repeated until the percentage of U-235 reaches the desired range.
If Iran is enriching uranium only to generate electricity, there is no need to enrich the supply beyond about 20% U-235. Continuing the enrichment process to anywhere near the 80% level is a sure sign that weapons-grade uranium is being produced. Iran has refused to allow the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to inspect its nuclear facilities to ascertain the level of enrichment going on. This refusal is taken a sign that Iran intends to enrich the uranium to the level required for an atomic bomb.
Q. Can airstrikes alone stop Iran from going nuclear?
A. Yes, if the location of the reactors and centrifuges are known. Although many (if not all) of Iran's nuclear facilities are deep underground, accurate bombing could block access to them from the surface, and powerful enough bombs could even destroy them underground. Both Israel and the United States have high-resolution satellite-imaging systems that can monitor these sites. However spies on the ground, especially those working on the program, would be invaluable in making the strikes successful. Of course, there is no way to know if either the US or Israel has such spies in place in Iran.
Q. If this happened, could Iran rebuild the facilities and re-start a nuclear program later?
A. Yes, but that would take years and be extremely expensive. Since the new facilities could also be destroyed, the leaders of Iran might decide that it is not worthwhile to do so. Also, political change in Iran in the months and years following an attack on the nuclear sites may quash the effort to develop nuclear weapons.
Q. How would Iran respond to destruction of its nuclear facilities by Israel?
A. Unless Israel first destroyed Iran's air force and missile sites in a "June 1967"-type attack, Iran would no doubt launch missiles at Israel in return. However, Israel's Arrow anti-missile defense system could explode the Iranian missiles in mid-air.
Iran would also demand that Hezbollah fire its thousands of missiles from Lebanon at Israel, triggering another war with the Shiite militia.
Q. If the uranium enrichment continues, might President Bush attack Iran's nuclear facilities before the end of his term?
A. There have been reports that he has decided to do so, even though the November, 2007, National Defense Estimate on Iran claimed that the Islamic Republic had cancelled its nuclear weapons development program in 2003. He would not dare to launch an attack against Iran before the US presidential election (November 4), since that could sink Republican chances for both the White House and Congress (3). If the US were to launch such an attack, the window of opportunity would be November 5, 2008-January 21, 2009. If that does not occur by Inauguration Day, look for Israel to attack Iran .
Q. How can the ruling Guardian Council save Iran from this disaster ?
A.1. Depose President Ahmadinejad. (4)
2. Allow the AIEA to inspect all Iranian nuclear facilities to verify that enrichment is not proceeding beyond the level needed for generating electricity.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(1) Grand Ayatollah Ali Khameini, chief of the ruling Guardian Council, has flatly contradicted all these threats, saying that "Iran is not a threat to any nation, not even the Zionist entity. " However, so far neither Khameini nor the Guardian Council have taken even one step (as far as we know) to restrain the President's rhetoric.
(2) The atomic weight of an element is the number of of all protons and neutrons in its atomic nucleus. The number of protons alone determine which element the atom represents; two forms of the same element that contain different numbers of neutrons ( and thus have different atomic weights, such as U-235 and U-238) are called isotopes.
(3) Any war involving Iran would send oil prices "through the roof." No matter how the war turned out, voters would reject the President's party if high gasoline prices could be blamed on his action.
(4) Ahmadinejad's term as President of Iran expires in 2009, and there is no indication he intends to seek re-election at that time. The Guardian Council can bar any candidate from the ballot. I believe they also have the power to remove an incumbent President, though this has not been done so far.
posted by Gerald S Glazer at 1:56 PM
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